Nice guys finish Last.

Because the last shall be first. From my last post on Reddit:

This will be the last missive from me as you are obviously not ready for grown-ups on Reddit. There are a number of signs and discontinuities on the weather charts about these coming eruptions, most notably the NA-EFS mentioned in the title. More striking is the behaviour of the North Atlantic as depicted by the afternoon charts from the Meteorological Orifice and Climategate. Don’t worry, I plan to house all the charts mentioned in my blog. I have yet to consult the charts Australian on the subject, even though they are without peer my favourite colour Blue.

First, the North Atlantic: I do NOT like the new layout. For some reason it appears Adobtrophied. I can’t imagine why earth science agencies must apply javascript when they ought to be learning html and various non Microsoft web ISOs. As it happens… Ah never mind. It’s none of my business. (Someone write and tell them about Imgur and MP4.)

The analysis of the 13:00 on the 9th October 2014, clearly shows the twin-cored Low (988mb) over the UK. Midnight, it breaks away (full of volcanic fronts) to Scandinavia, leaving little more than a depression of the coast of Europe. (And those volcanic front but look at the disposition of the mice.) By Sunday afternoon there is nothing but an enormous col governing the Atlantic. No doubt waiting the degaussing of whatever is coming next to let the light so shine upon Fay that you may see it’s good work and glorify our father which is in heaven. (As if proof were needed that one’s other fathers were no such a place. (Not even an hurricane with anticyclones on will get them that far.)) But I digress, this is a forecast of the mundane not the divine…

On Monday we have another twin cored Low (967 and 969 millibars.) I don’t know why these things don’t connect, it isn’t as if they were cyclones and anticyclones (which is to say cats and dogs.) But there you go and here we come:

Tuesday. And it is a beautiful circle at 941 (mb) and exactly the same size as the coastline from SE Greenland through to France. The acoustic from that will be amazing. But there is more: On the 9th the two cyclones over North America were separated by a ridge of High Pressure, smack over tornado alley. This is gone by today and two well formed Highs lie under two deep Lows. At the very least this means war or at least a Mag. 6.

But that was yesterday. Today’s forecast is not yet out. So on with the story… The first chart for the 12th holds three small cyclones, as near as damn is to swearing, in a line. On the 13th they are larger -but not more impressive. It is just that the Highs have been hit by volcanoes. Yes folks… You heard it hear foist: Hit by volcanoes.

On the 14th, if this model run is to be relied on, there is still an upsurge and whilst an anticyclone rears up on the east coast, it will do no more than indicate the whereabouts of the activity. An anticyclone stepping off the Ocean Shelf at around Cape Hatteras means stuff for Rat Islands and … I forget the other one… but hell, it’s the Aleutians so …

Fox…. I remember.. Fox Islands. How did that one get its name and all those rats down the other end?

The 15th is interesting. I am sure there are five lows on there but two of them are off the page. Not important for now. (I dare say a lot can be made of them one day but it is not yet my time.) 16th-17th? All over. A bit of grumbling but no more than this. Pointless Americana. And (typically for such a large country) …a small, red-necked and ultimately doomed, conserve. But there you go.

I got the earthquake right, for what that was worth. I may have this one buttoned too but… who ya gonna call?

Not me. I’m out of here now.

And that appears to be that. I have given them the impression that I predict the eruption will be on the Aleutians. I actually think it is more likely Kamchatka. But there is also extrusion erupting from Copahue:

A new phase of ash emissions began on the evening of 4 Oct. The volcano started to emit near continuous ash plumes, interrupted by strong degassing phases, from the active El Agrio crater. Seismic activity according to SERNAGEOMIN has been low suggesting that the origin of the new eruptions is phreatic, i.e. driven by steam explosions rather than fresh magma rising to the surface.

No incandescence has been observed, a further sign that the temperature is relatively low, typical for phreatic activity, and no thermal signal is visible on satellite data.

Copahue volcano started a phase of unrest in late 2012 with seismic swarms and increased degassing. Its alert level was lowered back to Green in April 2013, but activity picked up shortly again, in May, and increased to the point that a magmatic eruption was considered a possibility. Volcanic alert level was raised to red, along with evacuations as precaution. In June 2013, seismic and degassing activity decreased again and in July, alert level was lowered back to Yellow, despite some occasional ash emissions.

Whether or not the current activity will lead to a new escalation of the ongoing crisis and possibly a magmatic eruption is impossible to say at the moment.

Some charts:

29 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip

Click to enlarge.

This isn’t the earliest warning if warning this be. The tell-tale is a signal on the tip of South Africa -a dark blue region appears with the first chart. Byt t+60 it is a full blown cyclone admittedly not a deep one (1018) and doesn’t get much deeper even after moving to Madagascar. By t+120 it is still only 1005mb.

Hardly distinguished -so why and how did it remain a standing wave so long?

Bear in mind that until it begins to join the regular flow around Antarctica on the 4th, there are several much more interesting phenomena going on, including a full blown Cat 4 and 5 tropical storm -whose harmonies are showing up well marked in the same chart.

When it joins that coastal Low at 60 E. at t+126 it begins to take centre stage and the mass deepens darkly. It falls off the charts soon after so here we go with the run from Sunday the 3rd:

3 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip

Click to enlarge.

This run brings us to the Hiatus the is the tropical storm situation up to today. Fay or ALO7 has just been posted but the tropical situation is still weak despite a Cat 3 heading for VietNam.

[Found it. In a later thread I remember remarking about this error. I couldn’t see where I had posted it. I imagine I was looking at the first of these:

5 October 2014.TSR Phanfone 1

5 October 2014.TSR Phanfone 3

Or the home page:

5 October 2014.TSR Phanfone Simon and Vongfong 1

I was completely out of things by the time I was writing this blog. Sorry about that.]

You can see a trough develop on the coast at t+162. Actually a ridge of high pressure that gets entrained at 120 E. as a cyclone sweeps through Australia. But a standing wave at 120 W. appears to be a constant feature.

9 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.006

It is something to bear in mind whilst consulting the NA-EFS:

20141009 NA-EFS

This is a long post. No wonder the moderators at Reddit had the foresight to get rid of a “moron” like me. Don’t be afraid of clicking to enlarge. A fearless philosopher like you should get the full benefit of all I have to offer.

On the NA-EFS you can clearly see the three Lows in the North American line-up. There isn’t much more to add but it really would be a shame to leave out such a beauty from today’s North Atlantic:

9 October 2014 North Atlantic pm

I love that storm that appears at the end. A pity it doesn’t reappear in subsequent runs. For an idea the scale; it fits in the curve of SE Greenland. And the other end reaches over to the coast of Europe. And coincidentally is the same shape as the east coast of Canada. (You really should take a look at Australia too. It’s nice.)

If someone would be so kind as to work out the acoustics of such a planetary wave, I would be an happy chappie.

It is the afternoon of the 12th and although there have been some eruptions they are no full steam, yet. However, something has changed in the EFS:

20141012 NA-EFS

Whilst sets of three Lows still clatter across the screen in good volcanic formation, I am unhappy with them. They actually go on to the 20th so I should be some sort of happy. 8 days out is far more than any spaghetti chart can be relied on. Plus of course all this is the sort of stuff that boy’s own stories are made of.

Anything that takes a lot of energy out of the sump available to keep the planet’s heat engine ticking over, is liable to cause major distortions in the weather charts. However, now I am wondering if there is anything that can be learned from these. Yesterday they were indicative of eruptions both on this side of the hemisphere and on the Asian side.

Since the absence of the lines of Highs, the distort Lows may be indicating the regionality of the coming eruptions. Not that I have any idea where. Not will I if previous experiences with my own insight.is anything to go by.

What would an insight to one’s insight be termed?

Self awareness?

Self disenchantment?

If you grab the NA-EFS charts right now you can go back a few days with them and see exactly what I mean. http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html shows the different charts going back a month (to the 11th 21st of September at the time of writing) so there is no excuse for not having seen them yourselves at this dawn of a new-earth natural-history.

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