The spell beginning 15 October 2014.

From a couple of newsgroups I follow on Usenet:

I think the next spell (15 October 2012. 19:12) will start early.
Lunar phases that match:

Early days yet but I am expecting a series of violent volcanic explosions for the days 12th to 18th, with a large earthquake on the other side of the globe in perhaps Japan or Indonesia on the 20th (October 2014, within a week or so of the above phase.)

https://weathercharts.wordpress.com/2014/10/11/lunar-phases-that-match-15-october-2012-2nd-quarter-1912/

The nearest matching phase:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sci.geo.earthquakes/pIZGiL4qryE

**

In my experience I should have been ready for tornadoes but…

I’m in the wrong job for a man that takes error personally.

141010_rpts 141011_rpts 141012_rpts 141013_rpts 141014_rpts 141015_rpts 141016_rpts 141017_rpts

As you can see there have been no significant winds here this spell. (From 10/15/14; US spelling.)

How does one explain that the signal for these things is so nearly the same one as for volcanic eruptions?

And it doesn’t help to be in the company of distinguished losers:
https://archive.org/details/cihm_25726 (Link to a pdf) My one small saving grace is that I have pointed out the problem in the past.

Almost but not quite:
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/mayon/news/48398/Mayon-volcano-Luzon-Island-Philippines-activity-update-extrusion-of-viscous-lava-flow-warning-of-pos.html

Two positives:
1. The IR images of weather over the Great Lakes give a spot on signal for US tornadoes (but obviously no warning) and
2. There is enough difference in the NA-EFS to make a discernment (with more practice.)

But I still feel like I just had a mauling.
***

Two consecutive earthquakes:

2014/10/14
03:52 12.7 N. 90.5 W. 5.0 mb. Off Coast of Central America
03:51 12.6 N. 88.1 W. 7.3 M. Off coast of Central America

If you can survive a mauling you come away with an interesting experience that you should be able to learn from. I had always wondered how the demise of some storms provided a series of adjacent earthquakes yet others a large quake.

The answer of course is that there is no such thing as aftershock and it IS impossible, as Belba Grub stated, that the deep “earth” can be “strained”.

Well done Barbara, wherever you are.

 ***
The previous posts had been sent to that thread by mistake it wasn’t until the 15th that I realised I was in the wrong one:
Sinabung volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia) activity update: continuing pyroclastic flows. The NA-EFS still shows tornado mechanics are in the ascendancy today:

2014101500_024 2014101500_048

Tomorrow’s chart is slightly different, with the possibility of two volcanoes active. I use the terms today and tomorrow incorrectly. What I meant was the first and second charts (16th and 17th of October’s forecasts.)

There is a ridge of High pressure spoiling a perfect score but it is still early days with this model. Maybe tornadoes, more from Sinabung and a Mag 6?

The chart for the 18th is the most interesting. The 19th is similar and then it becomes obvious that this spell is one where two Lows play cat and mouse with an High.

After the mass of tropical storms and other goings on last week we have a slur on at the moment. The BoM don’t have any really outstanding precipitate. An extra-tropical fading by tomorrow night but still some tropical activity. Late Friday it turns into a regimental square with the open side closed with a large cyclone.

This is usually the case with the weather after a spate of powerful storms. The planet is all blown out and the next run of them tends to be low energy stuff.

We can’t rule out some powerful earthquakes today and tomorrow as the North Atlantic is showing the set up for a convergent seismic storm which after a few days becomes a series of parallel fronts of the same occluded nature.

Those signify the triple adjacent stuff I have been describing lately.

Since the cyclone is slated to last the spell and is going north to fill the Norwegian Sea/Atlantic Approaches, rather than run ashore at Europe, I suppose it is in for the spell too so whatever tropical storms we have now will continue as whatever until whenever.

The storm Fay is going to Hawaii and past it according to their GFS:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/modelsanim.cgi?model=gfs&domain=npac&param=precip&orient=horiz&modeltime=2014101500&level=sfc&gfsanimduration=180&banner=mkwc&imgsize=Large&animtype=flash

I much prefer the wind charts as they show greater clarity. But I present these because they have nice 540 dam line it would be nice if that storm followed. If it did it would take the not very low Low (1008 going to 986 mb) all the way to California. But that isn’t on the charts at the mo.

Maybe later.

***

It has been very damp here, the kind of weather that causes salt to stick to the shaker. And my forgettery is working overtime.

More symbionics with the decline and fall of the late great Vongfong. Let’s hope I got that right this time… (If it IS that one anyway…)

2014/10/16

00:27. 32.84 N. 47.80 E. 4.5 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

2014/10/15

23:53. 31.75 N. 140.54 E. 5.8 Mb Southeast of Honshu, Japan

23:50. 32.44 N. 47.88 E. 4.4 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

22:31. 32.47 N. 47.98 E. 4.5 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

21:31. 28.27 N. 55.69 E. 4.3 ML SOUTHERN IRAN

18:32. 2.94 S. 128.10 E. 5.0 M Ceram Sea

13:45. 32.52 N. 47.91 E. 4.3 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

13:35. 32.56 N. 47.84 E. 5.8 Mw IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

It’s worth looking at the NA-EFS for yesterday’s noon charts here:
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

I’d have said that was a clear four in a row (maybe 5 with stuff just off the map.) The next day the same.

At the time of writing, you could still grab the forecasts for the 15th. Look at the sea level pressures for the 16th. A bit of a scribble though. Hence the above I suppose.

The 17th is more cohesive but look at the damned ridge of High pressure in between. Same with the 18th. (I wonder if they use wobbly lines to indicate regions of compression in the isobars, the same way normal charts use compression to display compression in the isobars.)

It is clear that the sizes of the systems govern the degree of seismic convergence. Lots of little systems indicate smaller earthquakes while two or three large ones can indicate larger quakes. Obviously timing is of the essence. When one system in the west steps over the coastline at the same time as one in the east steps off it: BANG!

It is so obvious I can not for the life of me see why everyone is so blind to it. I suppose people are rather like politicians: They have complete faith in what they want to believe, even if “other people” get badly hurt.

Isn’t that depressing!

The North Atlantic Low that has been covering tropical storm developments for us so well, comes apart on Saturday afternoon (18 October 2014.) It goes to the north of Iceland in a rhomboid indicating a twin core. Sure enough the cyclone drops back down to the south of Iceland by the end of the run the next day and extends a trough to where it is at the time of writing.

Aberrant behaviour like that is indicative of volcanics but look out for more tornadoes and related high winds -and presumably twin epicentres like the above and the Kuril Islands (not previously mentioned.)

OK, that is about it for this morning. I’ll take a look at the BoM and Hawaii charts when they have updated. No hurry until Sunday. There is plenty of time for plenty of confusion.

***

I am having a problem getting this done. My problem is it is so boring. A bigger problem is that I’ll regret it when things get more interesting.

***

I’m pretty sure that the volcano that erupted on the last phase that was similar to this one also exploded unforeseen. But without looking and going by recent experience, I may well be wrong.

I don’t know that Australia was inundated with snow that time though:

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydney-wild-weather-warning-heavy-rain-winds-forecast-20141014-3hyv3.html

If you are quick there is still time to see a T shaped jellyfish like front entering the deep Low in the North Atlantic midnight last night. (The archive is available on Bernard Burton’s site.)

This front is identical to the type that can be used to forecast tornadoes… except this one is entering a cyclone. Look at the occluded front (983 mb) and the small cyclone just east of Canada between Newfoundland and that giant harmonic cyclone that is just there to tell the world the shipping news for this spell.

2 or 3 occluded fronts on that one BTW (968 mb stretching from Newfoundland to Denmark) so look out for more adjacent earthquakes. Presumably at the demise of Ana; though Gonzalez can not be expected to grow much larger or go on forever can it?
A mere gale in 3 days according to Unisys.

Wow! Sunday is going to be a WOW!
We will finally learn unequivocally what the dark mass of precipitate that quarters a section of Antarctica means. On Saturday the isobars crossing the continent from 160 E. to 80 W. will be thick, black and unmistakeable in their intent.

There is a wide sweep of isobars from 20 E. to 120 W. all more or less parallel so there are yet more super-storms on the way. 5 small cyclonic centres in that sector reserved for volcano signals though (160 to 140 E.) That may cloud things over, so to speak.

Sunday is the 19th and half way through a long spell. The next one is on the 23rd. Ana will be glowing by then:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/modelsanim.cgi?banner=mkwc&model=gfs&domain=npac&orient=horiz&param=winds&level=sfc&modeltime=2014101606&gfsanimduration=180&banner=mkwc&imgsize=Large

There doesn’t appear to be any link with such storms and flooding in California.
I’ll have to learn what the situations are for a Pineapple Express.

***

This just in on Monday evening 20th October 2014:

Sinabung (Sumatra, Indonesia): Pyroclastic flows of small to moderate size continued to occur frequently during the past days.
Our friend Canadian filmmaker Michael Dalton who was on location estimated 10-20 per day, most of them reaching lengths of 1-2 km and producing ash plumes rising approx. 2 km.

So all those missing tornadoes seem to have signified  plenty of unseen volcanic activity. I wonder what others roses have been blossoming unseen.

***

Thursday, Oct 16, 2014
Augustine volcano (Alaska): pilot reports large ash cloud, aviation color code raised to Red
Strong ash emissions from the volcano were reported by a pilot shortly after midnight (UTC). The reported height of the plume was to up to 70,000 ft (21 km) altitude, which would indicate an unexpected, and sudden major explosion took place (if the observed plume was volcanic ash and not something else). Anchorage VAAC raised the Aviation Color Code to RED

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/augustine/news.html

Maybe the professionals who have state of the art equipment, hands on experience and also friends and neighbours close by to whisper that forecasting these things is impossible to them find it impossible but someone who has none of these things, sitting in a damp and cheerless, faraway land can expect the unexpected sudden major explosion when everyone else isn’t looking.

And sometimes he will be caught out by the unexpected tornado or twenty five:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/141013_rpts.html/b-st_rds

***

I am still making stupid mistakes. I dumped more than half my charts in an unknown place yesterday. That was a downer.It is still miserably dull though we had a small window of sunny weather for a few hours early this afternoon.

Everywhere seems to be reporting Snowfalls, Russia and Norway obviously though it IS early even for them. Australia has had some and Nepal had several people killed in snowstorms.

I think we are due for another large quake. This one will finally break the weather I hope. Even the SED is pointing out an anomaly. When there is a Pineapple Express situation is there a large earthquake to go with it?

I gather there is a considerable weather anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska with such a storm.

About a month ago I was expecting a super-quake complete with tidal waves. I can’t recall what we had instead. At the moment there are few tornadoes or high winds reported for the USA. So more volcanic stuff with whatever.

***
Still unwell and still earth according to the list since the start of the spell:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sci.geo.earthquakes/oi_rLCy14gIGrab an IR image of the storm over Hawaii as this could be the game changer for California. It would be something to remember a Pineapple Express by if you plan on boring your grandchildren to death with such stories one day.Also nothing much on here since the start of this spell:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/141017_rpts.html
Three tropical storms in place though so plenty of Navier-Stokes numbers to analyse in the fall out. What did I say was going to happen on the 23rd?Looks like something by then on the NA-EFS. Somewhat  OT but Wisconsin have a nice set up for I images:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=atlantic&prod=irn&sat=g8

Yes the charts turn yellow straight afterwards so even the spaghetti knows when something is up.  Some light plane crashes but I have no idea how common they are.

***
From uk.sci.weather:
On Saturday, 18 October 2014 09:22:47 UTC+1, Graham P Davis  wrote:
> Tornado watch issued 0730Z:
>
> http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.phpInteresting, thanks:”TORNADO WATCH 2014/012A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 0730GMT on Saturday 18th October 2014

Valid from/until: 07:30 – 09:00GMT on Saturday 18th/Sunday 19th October 2014 for the following regions

Parts of Eire, N Ireland, Western Scotland, IoM, Far NW Wales.

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

A moist and unstable SSW’erly flow is present across the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will occur at times through today and overnight, especially near the west coast(s). Strong deep layer shear /40-60 knots 0-6 km/ suggests that organised multicells, short lines, and supercells are all possible modes of convection.

In addition, backed surface flow will increase 0-1km shear and helicity – a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Through Saturday there will be no clear focus for larger scale lift, but through the evening and overnight an upper trough will approach suggests showers/thunderstorms may become more numerous. The risk may be offset somewhat overnight inland because of nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, which suggests the highest risk through the night will be in coastal areas.

Forecaster: RPK”

Perhaps someone will take the time to consult the records for early snowfalls in Northern Europe and analyse the likelihood of a relationship?

I have placed something related to this on sci.geo.earthquakes:

“If you are quick there is still time to see a T shaped jellyfish like front entering the deep Low in the North Atlantic midnight last night. (The archive is available on Bernard Burton’s site.)This front is identical to the type that can be used to forecast tornadoes… except this one is entering a cyclone. Look at the occluded front (983 mb) and the small cyclone just east of Canada between Newfoundland and that giant harmonic cyclone that is just there to tell the world the shipping news for this spell.”

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sci.geo.earthquakes/AHfhBC9jsyc

http://www.woksat.info/etcwjasxx/asxx14101606.html
http://www.woksat.info/etcwjasxx/asxx14101612.html
http://www.woksat.info/etcwjasxx/asxx14101618.html

That thing in front of Gonzo on here doesn’t resemble either front:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1413633600

So maybe a roll/shelf cloud?
Might be an idea to keep the cameras handy for a line-storm on Tuesday or Wednesday.

***

Monday night 20 October 2014.

Looking at the NA-EFS for the end of this spell we have another signal for a Mag 7 earthquake and following that the volcanoes we have been missing so far.

***

Ana is due to go to Washington and I am not referring to a Frank Capra feel-good movie. It will probably go to Washington or Oregon or both. These things tend to flatten out when the rest of the water catches up with them. If it does then that is a Pineapple Express.If it doesn’t and TSR says not, then it goes to the Arctic through the Bering Straight. If it goes that way in spite of the model run from Mauna Kea Weather Center then it has to do so at some expense not envisaged by meteorology. By coincidence such a draught could be drawn on the Bank of Lows at the NA-EFS.

Count on further details.
***
That’s it, up to date. How hard was that?
Ah yes, but there remains the problem of selecting and editing charts for the thread.
Got all the dates screwed up or missing. Going to have to refer you to the original.
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