23 October 2014. 21:57, an hour past thundery. This is a volcanic spell.

From the uk.sci.weather Usenet group’s FAQ:

24th October – 13th November

Stormy Cyclonic type frequent, especially in 2 peak periods:
26th – 29th October and
9th – 12th Nov.

In the interval there is a tendency to fair, mild Southerly type weather with high pressure over the continent. Anticyclonic type is very uncommon in Britain 26th – 28th Oct. Westerly types become increasingly frequent throughout the period, as successive lows pass further north, reaching a peak on 8th – 12th Nov.

Other common types in this period are: – Easterly type around 1st/2nd Nov; Northerly type around 25th/26th Oct. This last marks the first and most prominent autumn N’ly outbreak – which is followed in some years by rising pressure in Scandinavia with continental anticyclones common around 30th Oct – 6th Nov.

As an example of how inclement the weather can be, here we have just had what appears to have been a Line Storm whilst at the same time an Anticyclone has been sitting to our south:

21 October 2014 OPC_NAT 12 21 October 2014 OPC_NAT 18 22 October 2014 OPC_NAT 00 22 October 2014 OPC_NAT 06 22 October 2014 OPC_NAT 12 22 October 2014 OPC_NAT 18 23 October 2014 OPC_NAT 00

Much the same thing has occurred in the North Pacific:

14 to 14 October 2014.OPC_PAC

This activity in the Pacific has been going on as long as I can recall. In which case the fronts running across, rather in the manner of something out of a Tolkein story, were probably incited by a super-quake. Would that have been the Japanese event in 2011?

What will it take to break it, I wonder.



What isn’t shown in the graphic is that a strong storm line will run north of such a set-up. (South if the positions are reversed.) And if the laminar flow of the two systems is compressed quickly enough instead of turbulence we will get a conversion of factors to either a volcanic event (unlikely) or a series of large quakes.

I have recently discussed how the powers in these systems may be transformed. It is mere supposition at the moment. You can call it coincidence if you like. Personally, I see no other explanation. Meanwhile as you can imagine warm air is dragged up from the south. And in the reversed situation cold air dragged from the north. There is a limit to how turbulent the mixing can become. Thus in tightly compressed situations there has to be a transformation to another more vigorous energy release.

I am not saying that we are about to have such an energy crisis, although a few despondent farmers in California might well wish it. What I would like to suggest is that catastrophic accidents might be analysed with wind tunnels. I dare say there actually mathematical models for use in them that may well describe such events. The universities of Europe have recently held a conference about acoustics and wind tunnels. I would love to be able to understand what went on.

Unfortunately I am incapable of following mathematical reasonings and in any case, am unlikely to be able to afford the papers that will be produced on the subject, I dare say.

I don’t know what swarms of low magnitude earthquakes are ringing at the time of writing but these two are the only medium magnitude ones:


5.6 Mb     South of Kermadec Islands     at 12:18:34
5.5 Mb     South of Kermadec Islands     at 12:18:32

I had expected more from Tuesday but I am neither god nor good at this.

These two animations come from the North Atlantic forecasts immediately prior to the events that are key to this week’s weather schedule:

23 October 2014.Midnight MetO  23 October 2014.Noon MetO

Midnight and noon forecasts for 23 October 2014. Click to enlarge.

Two or more parallel fronts indicate two or more chronologically and geographically adjacent epicentres. Such epicentres depending one for one on how many fronts they are. I dare say too that one following shortly after a quake from somewhere else will occur with such a set up as the cold fronts on the first chart, in the first animation. There are actually three fronts extending down from Norway to the middle of the North Atlantic at the bottom left hand side of the chart.

But they are not in layered stack. So whilst indicating the region involved, the timing is slightly out.

Here are the two NA-EFS forecasts for the same time period:

23 October 2014.Noon NA-EFS   23 October 2014.Midnight NA_EFS

The fact is that the timing of the spell is based on the time of the lunar phase. And a time of anywhere near 4 or 10 o’clock is a volcanic spell. Unless we have something else instead. There is a lot to learn so I am only using a rule of thumb idea. The first thing that can go wrong is that we have tornadoes in the USA. The setups on all the charts are VERY similar for volcanoes and tornadoes.

However this is a giveaway:

23 October 2014.2xus_ir_anim1    23 October 2014.2xus_ir_anim2

That front of yellow upper air crossing the Great Lakes is a sure sign of tornadic activity.

These on the other hand are charts for volcanic eruptions:

2014092500_024    2014092600_024

Seems like I remember the set-up quite differently. Can you see three lows in a row?

Here is the same set-up for tornadoes:


Don’t look a lot different do they?

Here is what a tornado set up looks like on the North Atlantic charts:

12 October 2014.FSXX00T_00   12 October 2014.FSXX00T_12

A low system passing between two highs and a tell tale T shapes front.

Can’t see ’em?

Here’s why:

12 October 2014.FSXX00T_72   12 October 2014.FSXX00T_84

2014/10/14     04:12:30     6.1 Mb     NEI     South of Kermadec Islands
2014/10/14     03:51:35     7.3 M.    NEI     Off coast of central Amererica

Nothing is ever straight forward.

25 October 2014 and the North Atlantic is looking like an hanged dog:

25 October 2014.Midnight

Either that, or it is both fish and fowl.

It started off as a triangular col. Those things should be “x” shaped and definitely not called H.

12 hours later the North Atlantic is decked out for Christmas. It’s all very changeable but not very different. And by the end of the run, back where it started. Maybe it is due to this:

cp0214 Well, it takes all sorts.

2014102500_024     2014102500_072 2014102500_096     2014102500_120


Update 2

The Canadian EFS has been down for a few days now and considering how interesting things would have been on it I am very remiss in not getting an alternative lined up.

Here is what I have got:

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.turbulence forecastgfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014 09 27

The first animation is from the 30th of October 2014. The second is from the day before the eruption of Ontake on the 27th of September 2014.

My regular computer is still not able to get the NA-EFS from Canada. I managed to get today’s and those of the 28th on another computer.It is a javascript problem though. I can either have the charts or my privacy. Try using Ghostery and NoScript on your computer and see what happens.

Here are the latest:

2014103000_024 2014103000_048 2014103000_072 2014103000_096


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