31 October 2014. 02:48 and “instability”

Volcanoes Today, 30 Oct 2014: Stromboli volcano, Popocatépetl, Bardarbunga, Turrialba, Kilauea, Santiaguito, Fuego, Shiveluch

Stromboli effusive eruption started on 7 August seems to be ending:

Bardarbunga lava effusion rates continue. There are no signs of the eruption ending soon.

Shiveluch Ash plume reported last evening rising to 30,000 ft extending east (likely associated with a pyroclastic flow.)

Kilauea the Pahoa resident whose house is immediately in threat has constructed a 5m/15ft earth barrier to attempt to divert the lava around his house. The lava has reached the barrier and began spreading around it.

Popocatépetl activity unchanged. Occasional explosions produce ash plumes that rise 1-2 km above the volcano.

Santiaguito Viscous lava flow on the eastern side advances slowly.

Fuego Stable over the past weeks. Mild to moderate strombolian explosions continue.

Turrialba A large explosion occurred at 23:40 local time, the eruption lasted about 45 minutes accompanied by strong seismic activity.

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volcanoes/today.html

When you get an insight into what is going on you are immediately struck with wonder at it all. Then when the signs of the same thing happening again occur you can’t wait to publish it. Then some petty flouncer comes along to make it his business to rain on your parade as if you had been inciting the hoi-palloi to insurrection. As if anyone in the real world would be interested in what fireworks god has arranged in display at any inconvenient time.

And then you find yourself in the business of firing off warnings. And the excitement dampens down to a background fear about getting things correct. Eventually it becomes a worry because things don’t always go the way you expect them to.

It’s nice when it does but that is about all you get for the worry. What is it about people where they get to think the Internet was designed just so they could insult people with equanimity?  (Not that I am an innocent party. (Far from it.))

If I was getting paid for the effort, as long as the quality was up to a standard worthy of my hire, I could learn to hold my tongue when the scum come out to throw stones. I might even have a reputation for being polite by now.
Good old mercenary clauses. If it wasn’t for the expectation of remuneration the USSR would have become a model to the George Pullmans and the Grover Clevelands of the world.

To Business:
I am using these charts for the North Atlantic now and am about to change my operating system to Linux Mint. (If it isn’t one headache, it’s another.)

31 October 2014.ASXX

We still have a cyclone harmonic in the North Atlantic pierced by that arrow-like frontal system that still signals volcanic activity -as far as I know.

What it might be doing meantime is changing it’s identity to that of significant seismic convergence. But for the bulk of the next 120 hours it looks more like the intestines of a planet are hanging on the west coast of Europe. There might be some winds in the USA with that cyclone entering the North Atlantic later in the week.

31 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip

There really is very little on the BoM charts to show that tropical storms should be building as they are. But things change incrementally to show that what is running now is about to become very heavy weather. A dark mass on the Greenwich Meridian produces convergence with a large system at 90 East.

More of those “bunts” perhaps but they also denote some sort of volcanic activity. That is another presumption one has to beware of. You can get stuck in a misapprehension when you think you know something. Then you spend a few months believing firmly in something that is suddenly decidedly not so.

And the revelation of that can be depressing.
All for a pittance.
And no thank you.

19 to 26 October 2014.OPC_PAC

I am of the opinion that when a cyclonic system moves in a direction counter to the expected (rather as that of the one mentioned on the Greenwich meridian -see the cyclonic systems in the Gulf of Alaska, in the animation above) we are to have a continuous volcanic eruption of note. I am also of the opinion that such systems tend to get run over by passing cyclones when they do that.

That passing cyclone in its turn breeding another harmonic for yet more volcanic eruptions (elsewhere.)

It would be really nice if I could learn to locate likely trouble spots. They seldom prove to be the longitudes -such longitudes serving merely to hose other harmonic cyclones as for example the North Atlantic so called Icelandic Low.
With earthquakes, I believe they can be located by the compression at the edges of the harmonics.

The compression in the Antarctic cyclones however are a difficult nut because of the distances and locations of the Anticyclones at which compression takes place. Antarctic Anticyclones are commonly known as geography.

I have had to use a different computer to access the NA-EFS, hence the delay at first I thought it looked as I had said: More volcanic stuff. But I see now that there may even be a chance of a large earthquake. Three in a row for tomorrow morning, then on the 2nd November 2014, there is a slight change, a mere weakening of the signal.

2014103100

I don’t know what to make of things on the 3rd; on the 4th there is a strong volcanic signal again. I will let you decide for yourselves. You have all had some experience in the patient art. Maybe it’s the reason things are in a state of flux with the first BoM chart and that cyclonic system on the Greenwich Meridian. Well, we’ll soon see. From now to Sunday evening, as usual.

A post from 5 November:

On Wednesday, 5 November 2014 14:49:17 UTC, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> Something large and nasty heading from ) to 40 degrees East over the next few days. Friday or Saturday we could have a nasty earthquake series. Maybe not a mag 7 but some large medium magnitude stuff and then it runs around to another volcano builder at about 90 degrees East.
>
> All on the BoM charts.
>
> Sadly I burned all my files last night by treading on the USB I was saving them with. Pity that.
>
> It looks like Windows are saving them for me so I will have to take back everything  have been saying about the Cartel from Hell. When I get myself sorted I will bounce back large as life and just as ugly.

I will have to stop all my hate-speak of Windows as it rescued my drive with 80 GB of files.

Low energy earthquakes at the moment since the one medium magnitude a day or so back. And most of the seismic background in Iceland and Japan. Reminds me of the October November before the Fukushima quake. Or do I mean the super-quake before that one?

I’m pretty sure there was one hell of a list of quakes about 12 degrees south of that epic centre for a couple or three months prior to that super-quake.

2014/11/05

4.5 Mb HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHAN
4.9 Mb SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
4.4 M Greece
4.9 Mb HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
4.8 Mb NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
4.8 Mb GUAM REGION
4.6 Mb NEVADA
4.6 Mb NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINE

2014/11/04

4.7 Mb ICELAND
4.4 ML OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
4.6 Mb ICELAND
4.3 Mb ICELAND
5.3 Mb KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
4.9 Mb VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN RE
4.9 Mb SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RID
4.9 Mb JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
4.9 ML OFFSHORE LOS LAGOS, CHILE
5.1 Mb MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDON
4.7 Mb FIJI REGION

2014/11/03

4 M Romania
5.1 Mb MID-INDIAN RIDGE
4.5 Mb Iran-Iraq border region
4.7 ML JUJUY, ARGENTINA
4.7 Mb BANDA SEA
4.9 Mb JAVA, INDONESIA
5.7 Mb Mid-Indian Ridge
5.5 Mb Central Mid-Atlantic Ridg
4.9 Mb CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDG
4.9 Mb CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDG
5 Mb MADEIRA ISLANDS, PORTUGAL
4.7 Mb HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
4.9 Mb OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU,

2014/11/02

4.4 Mb MOLUCCA SEA
4.4 M Strait of Gibraltar
5.2 Mb ZAMBIA
5.2 Mb BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
5.2 Mb ICELAND
4.7 Mb BANDA SEA
4.9 Mb SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONES
4.6 Mb NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA RE
4.3 Mb ICELAND
4.6 Mb Near east coast of Hons
4.8 Mb BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGI
4.2 Mb OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE
4.6 Mb NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA RE

2014/11/01

5.4 Mb SOLOMON ISLANDS
7.1 M Fiji Islands region
4.1 Mb ICELAND
4 M Iceland
4.4 Mb OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
4.7 Mb EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
6 M Easter Island region

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volcanoes/today.html

Volcanoes Today, 5 Nov 2014: Popocatépetl volcano, Kilauea, Piton de la Fournaise, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Copahue
Wednesday Nov 05, 2014 09:00 AM |
Pyroclastic flow on Sinabung’s western flank on 3 Nov
Pyroclastic flow on Sinabung’s western flank on 3 Nov
Updated map of the lava flow in Pahoa as of 3 Nov 2014 (no major changes until early 5 Nov))
Updated map of the lava flow in Pahoa as of 3 Nov 2014 (no major changes until early 5 Nov))
Webcam shot of glowing bombs ejected from Popocatépetl volcano this morning
Webcam shot of glowing bombs ejected from Popocatépetl volcano this morning
Ash emissions from Copahue 4 Nov 2014
Ash emissions from Copahue 4 Nov 2014
Seismic activity under La Réunion in 2014; the black dot represents the recent earthquakes under Piton de la Fournaise volcano (image: OVPF)
Seismic activity under La Réunion in 2014; the black dot represents the recent earthquakes under Piton de la Fournaise volcano (image: OVPF)
Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan): The volcano’s activity is currently elevated. At least 3 explosions yesterday produced ash plumes that rose to more than 10,000 ft (3 km) altitude.

Sinabung (Sumatra, Indonesia): Growth of the viscous lava dome and lava lobe on the southeastern flank continues. Several pyroclastic flows, mostly smaller ones, have occurred from time to time during the past days.
At least some of them seem now to affect the previously untouched western flank, perhaps as the result of the changed topography at the summit due to the accumulated lava.

Kilauea (Hawai’i): USGS staff from HVO measured the lava flow yesterday and reported that “the leading edge of the flow has not advanced since last Thursday, October 30, but the flow continued to inflate, and minor breakouts were scattered across the flow interior behind the flow front.
The most significant (although still minor) breakouts were occurring about 370 meters (405 yards) above Apaʻa Street on Tuesday afternoon.
… [read more]

Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): The volcano’s activity remains essentially unchanged. A new lava dome is slowly growing in the inner summit crater and produces glow at night and occasional small explosions.
During the past 24 hours, activity has been a bit more intense. An explosion 20 minutes ago sent incandescent material to approx. 600 m distance outside the crater rim.
… [read more]

Copahue (Chile/Argentina): Light ash emissions occurred yesterday from the volcano. Glow continues to be visible from the crater at night.
SERNAGEOMIN keeps the volcano’s alert status unchanged at yellow.

Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion): There are signs that a new eruption could be on its way: an increasing number of shallow earthquakes has been registered under the volcano recently.
The volcano observatory (OVPF) and the prefecture raised the alert level to 1 (on a scale of 0-3), which includes some access restrictions to the enclos (the caldera of the volcano).

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volcanoes/today.html

Did I mention the stuff growing on the BoM chart.
And you already know now, how the circle of tropical storms works, don’t you?

Let me know if I missed anything.

5 November 2014.947_50   5 November 2014.ASXX 00 5 November 2014.ASXX 00b 5 November 2014.ASXX 00b 5 November 2014.ASXX 06 5 November 2014.FSXX 24 5 November 2014.FSXX 36 5 November 2014.FSXX 48 5 November 2014.FSXX 60 5 November 2014.FSXX 72 5 November 2014.FSXX 84 5 November 2014.FSXX 96 5 November 2014.FSXX 120

Compare the Great White Spot on these Hawaiian charts with the black cyclonic stuff on the BoM charts following:

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.000 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.006 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.012 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.018 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.024 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.030 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.036 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.042 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.048 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.054 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.060 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.066 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.072 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.078 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.084 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.090 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.096 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.102 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.108 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.114 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.120 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.132 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.144 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.156 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.168 gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2014110506.180

Note the way they mesh.

It’s called Tele-Connection.

5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.006 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.012 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.018 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.024 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.030 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.036 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.042 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.048 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.054 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.060 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.066 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.072 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.078 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.084 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.090 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.096 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.102 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.108 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.114 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.120 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.126 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.132 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.138 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.144 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.150 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.156 5 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.162

The various practitioners of the earth sciences would have you believe that these black arts are entirely separate and never the twain shall meet. Well, when they can explain the Millennium puzzle that besets their understanding of fluid mechanics, I might consider reasoning with them. Until then, I reserve the right to consider them dolts.

5 November 2014.image01     5 November 2014.image06 5 November 2014.rb1

Just a small sample of the charts I collect. When I get organised I will post the lot and let them lapse every few weeks, because the copyrights belong to:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/?select1=Unified%20Surface%20Analysis&select2=UA_Entire&select3=3&select4=normal&select6=Script

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm (and The UK MetOffice.)

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/index.cgi?model=gfs

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

It will be a while before I get things sorted with the new set-up. So no NA-EFS for a while. Pity that, looks like something big is building.

As a bonus though, I am working on the PDF of the Ezekiel S. Wiggins’ Storm Herald of 1883. That should be good. If you have ever heard of Piers Corby or Irving Krick (the man who made the Met Office OK D-Day) this is probably how the Magic Practising Priests of Babylon and Persia did it.

The man who wasn’t famous for not forecasting the eruption of Krakatoa.

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2 thoughts on “31 October 2014. 02:48 and “instability”

  1. I have had to use a different computer to access the NA-EFS, hence the delay at first I thought it looked as I had said: More volcanic stuff. But I see now that there may even be a chance of a large earthquake. Three in a row for tomorrow morning, then on the 2nd November 2014, there is a slight change, a mere weakening of the signal.

    2014/11/01 18:57:22 -19.70 -177.79 434.4 M 7.1 NEI manual Fiji Islands region

  2. I got the idea some would find my ideas a bit easier to follow if I supplied the charts rather than the links. I am going to supply them until I get told off for it. When I can organise a different site I will let them slide off the board every so often.
    Please yourselves what you make of them. Those that have shall get and those who don’t have will lose a lot more.
    A new spell tomorrow but we are on the hook until the end of January. It’s going to be a B!!!!! cold February and a cataclysmic early March.

    It is a particularly English trick to get caught with one’s trousers down. Let’s hope that the recently disentrousered are finished mooning by then.

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