Turbulence vss laminar flow

It is interesting to watch the wind and precipitation charts from Mauna Kea observatory today. You can’t really say a system that is about to melt-down is laminar but compared to the turblence output, it shows what is going on and how two different model types deal with the problem.

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.000

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.006

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.012

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.018

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.024

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.030

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.036

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.042

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.048

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.054

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.060

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.066

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.072

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.078

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.084

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.090

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.096

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.102

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.108

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.114

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.120

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.132

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.144

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.156

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.168

gfs.npac.horiz.cat.200-600.2014112200.180gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.000

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.006

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.012

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.018

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.024

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.030

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.036

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.042

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.048

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.054

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.060

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.066

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.072

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.078

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.084

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.090

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.096

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.102

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.108

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.114

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.120

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.132

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.144

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.156

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.168

gfs.npac.horiz.precip.NaN.2014112200.180

I am sorry you are trying to read this with a mobile as today’s mobile connections are not up to it. Also, I am unaware of how to forecast precise locations and timetables. So if you have any insight, please help out. I’m not getting paid for this so don’t expect remuneration.

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Storms in the southern hemisphere

I remember seeing something on the Australian charts a few weeks ago that made me believe the ice around Antarctica was about to start decreasing in extent. The cycle of storms continued for a short while -with some tremendously powerful ones. Then the “pointing” was done with.

For the last few days all the charts I have been watching were giving unsettling signals that I couldn’t decipher. (Pictures later I am not organised, yet.) But there is this:

14 November 2014.abiosair1

In case you are wondering, it isn’t a positive signal, just an indication… that things have moved south for the winter.  More later, it is interesting (if you consider forecasting the impossible more interesting than watching grown men kicking an over inflated bladder around an overly manicured field or (for that matter) a crew of bifurcated nose jobs with bipolar disorder pimping and preening on the silver screen) so call in and see it sometime.

sci.geo.earthquakes ›

It’s Over Oct 26 (2014)
2 posts by 1 author (me)

I think Antarctica is heading for Winter.

***

On Sunday, 26 October 2014 08:13:06 UTC, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
>
> I think Antarctica is heading for Winter.

I don’t how whatever has just happened at Antarctica has happened. I know it happens each year at roughly the same date. It will now start to affect the way that tropical storms behave. As it would if the seasons for the storms are due to change.

What has become obvious is that with the change in the ocean current the units of air surrounding the continent are smaller and more motile. Presumably it is still business as usual but it will soon become obvious it is not quite…

There is an example of the usual thing about to occur on the coast there at 20 W. to 40 E. by Thursday night.

What?
I can’t say.
We are due for all sorts of things. It looks like an earthquake series but…

There is a system focussed just off the coast at 140 E at the moment, wrapping itself around the coast and elongating far out to the west. That looks like a bad tornado spell but then it also looks like a volcanic eruption signal.

Maybe it’s both. Look at the dark centre, miles off-shore on Wednesday morning. That could be a tornado spell until Friday then by Saturday it disappears.

But it is about time for the new spell by then I think:
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html
Yes, the 31st. Wet and thundery. That’s Friday.

Well I may not know what is going to happen but I am pretty sure the timing is right but then, I’m not handling that aspect of things.

Am I?

Heading south. The unusual signalling in the Northern Hemisphere has given way to the first apparition that is the state of things to come in the Southern Hemisphere:

“ABPW10 PGTW 140600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZNOV2014//
RMKS

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.”

And:

“ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZNOV2014//
RMKS/

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 79.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 76.3E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA.”

So that was the post. The Antarctic system still had to complete a couple of cycles. There is a slight difference with the end of the ice extent and the switch to the southern hemisphere. The latter is controlled by the extent of the ice -or the lack thereof. There is a lot to be learned from all this but the path of the unrighteous one is pretty well marked out. (Think cohesive pressures on the isobars of the ITCZ) (well, we all have to start somewhere.)

And I can’t be bothered looking for more pictures just to emphasise my confusion. Maybe tomorrow and anyway, that was then.

2014/11/15
0.369 -8.7 118.33 4.5 Mb SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
0.341 1.83 126.45 4.5 Mb MOLUCCA SEA
0.259 1.99 126.67 4.7 Mb MOLUCCA SEA
0.222 -17.28 -69.91 5.2 ML SOUTHERN PERU
0.208 1.69 126.46 4.5 M Northern Molucca Sea
0.170 1.95 126.59 5 Mb MOLUCCA SEA
0.164 1.75 126.48 4.7 Mb MOLUCCA SEA
0.141 1.9 126.59 4.8 Mb MOLUCCA SEA
0.136 45.1 146.8 4.4 Mb Kuril Islands
0.130 -0.14 123.91 5.8 Mb Minahassa Peninsula, Sula
0.112 35.68 22.64 4.4 mb Central Mediterranean Sea
0.105 1.93 126.55 7.1 M Northern Molucca Sea
0.0393 38.14 142.05 4.6 Mb NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU
0.022 45.1 151.6 4.1 Mb Kuril Islands
0.0129 -12.66 -76.75 5.6 Mb Near coast of Peru
0.012 -12.7 -77.3 5.6 Mb Near coast of Peru
0.010 13.81 -90.29 4.7 Mb GUATEMALA
2014/11/14
0.960 37.1 104.23 4.9 Mb NEI MONGOL-NINGXIA-GANSU,
0.840 -18.88 169.44 4.8 Mb VANUATU
0.707 -7.57 119.87 4.5 Mb FLORES SEA
0.476 64.63 -17.2 5.1 Mb ICELAND
0.410 51.99 176.74 5 Mb RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISL
0.328 -4 142.72 4.9 Mb NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUI
0.256 52.26 161 5.1 Mb OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHAT
0.178 47.3 148.31 5.8 Mb northwest of the Kuril Is
0.177 45.22 150.93 5.7 Mb Kuril Islands, Russia

The fractions in the first column are parts of the day. I forgot to save the spread sheet as text so it kindly converted it to gibberish for me. Thanks Calc.

Prayer

Someone sent me this one liner:

The agnostic, dyslexic, insomniac lies awake at night wondering if there really is a dog.

So I wrote back:

And is too full of self distrust or worth to ask him.

It has to be the funniest sickest joke ever.

And the punchline is that he never says no.

Why do we do that?

Is god up all night not listening to people not praying to him?
Just imagine what the Internet would be like if people so sure of their disbeliefs were brave enough to ask him.
Or is the problem that nobody takes time to listen to what answers there may not be?
Are we so easily convinced there is no god that we won’t believe in the answers no matter what they are?
That is likely. How many people have prayed to god just before going into battle?
Countless different gods not listening?
Or just the one controlling god answering but not being heard?
If men are brave enough to go to war, why not be brave enough to say “No” to a politician?
Politicians are wrong all the time. We call them “Liars” by default. That’s another sick joke. It’s an unholy trinity making brave men cowards. Only brave men can be stupid enough to follow a politician into battle and leave the politician at home with the whores and the best cooking in the largest city centres with all the best entertainment and restaurants to take their whores to. And they are in control of all the money and all the laws and make the final decisions for the generals to act on. And the definition of war in the first place, is failed politics.
Don’t believe me?
Why did we have World War 2 in the first place?
And what did the politicians decide on half way though it?
How many brave men were still to die, not knowing what they weren’t fighting for?
And how many agnostics and atheists since then have used those deaths to prove there is no god?
How could god answer such prayers?
That’s not bravery, either. That is stupidity!
Brave is where you face up to a riotous crowd of devils that have been misled by liars, priests and politicians -and tell them straight where they get off.
If men were brave enough to do that, there would be no more wars. There wouldn’t even be any more fighting.
If people were brave enough to stand up for what is right, landlords would look after their properties and thus their tenants, neighbours would help people under attack by thieves. We wouldn’t even need policemen. Fancy living in a place where you couldn’t beat your wife up when you felt like it.
Where you wouldn’t need to steal food.
Where you could buy a car that was worth having,not buy a horse that was knackered and could deal with anyone politely, in full confidence.
So why doesn’t it happen?
Because frightened, brave men lie in bed at night afraid to ask god if he really cares?
This is what a chart of disbelief looks like:
2014110800_024
You can’t see the processes involved. It happens to be raining -as it has been most of the spell so far. It doesn’t say it is raining in England on the chart.
It doesn’t even show where volcanoes are active nor where earthquakes are going to occur. (Not as far as I know at least.)
To get a definitive answer about earthquakes and volcanoes we have to see three in a row. Otherwise, there is always an earthquake somewhere and volcanoes bleed molten rock and burp ash all the time.
With a striking event there must be three “like” systems in a row (at least three) and they must be well defined systems too. But such definition of finite systems means people are going to get hurt.
Fancy that!
If you play noughts and crosses with god, a win is where nobody dies and thus you can’t use the system to find the answer to religious questions. (A sensible man would ask for a reason for such “acts of god” that are “natural disasters”. I did and I am the worst kind of person as far as righteousness goes.) But there is one move that a mortal can use to get a win and nobody dies:
Just ask.
If you ask, you receive.
Now, for those incapable of asking, here are some permutations.
They are reduced to a few thousand for simplicity:
  Tic_Tac_Toe
512px-Tictactoe-X.svg
512px-Tictactoe-O.svg
Real life is much more simple. The trend is usually written from right to left and starts at or near the bottom, moving upwards in a spiral. But occasionally they can come in from the bottom right.