6 November 2014. 22:23, unstable. Somewhere between volcanic and anti-cyclonic

The title refers to the weather in my neck of the woods , the volcanoes could be anywhere that has them.  If you fancy yourself as an earthquake sensitive you might have buzzing in your ears. Not too distantly related, you might feel that your nerve ends are jangly, a condition you might relate to the onset of gout if you are lucky enough to enjoy that gift from above.

I have an headache a crick in my neck and my upper arm has been sore all last night (still not right.) Also I have tired nerve endings in my right leg. If you have ever had gout you will know what I mean. Not pain but tiring.

I think that means more magnitude seven stuff. That ex-tropical in the China sea should be hitting the Aleutians any day now. I think it crescendos on the 8th. So we have a massive ex-super-cylone still a rampant extra-tropical and a potent spell just ending with an unstable one about to kick off. What could possibly go wrong?

Oh, it is still Nuri. I thought it was Vongfong. I had lost track… literally.

Super Typhoon-5 VONGFONG. 02-14 OCT         155 knots. Cat 5

Super Typhoon-5 NURI.         31 OCT-06 NOV         155 knots. Cat 5

So what happened with Vongfong I wonder?
That wiped its feet all over Japan IIRC so this one running further south remains highly active a lot longer.

Some good news and some bad.
If I am right and this is a Mag 7 then it could likely be a Mag 8 or at least over 7.6M.

But at least that will kill the storms. Maybe keep the volcanoes down a bit too.
And there won’t be any Bunting (and thus no Swarms.) Yes, in the middle of October we had some good volcanic eruptions, didn’t we?

NPNA

The recent North Atlantic and North Pacific from OPC. Click to enlarge.

6 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip  gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.20141106

And these are today’s Australian charts and the Hawaiian ones.

I am going to feel a fool not supplying the NA-EFS but it is too much trouble to collect them at the moment. I think I may just have a day or two to get ready. My other computer is sorting out the damaged drive and doing it in Windows, so no internetting on that for a few hours. Ho hum.

2014110500

2014110600

2014110700

Let’s see if looking at the individual charts helps:

2014110500_024 2014110600_024 2014110700_048 7 November 2014.FSXX

I messed these charts up but you can see that they are not volcanic or large magnitude earthquake signals. The large Lows next to large highs (when in that 2:1 ratio) means medium size quakes -high fives and low to medium sixes, mainly. And the deep low on the North Atlantic charge indicates a deep low. Obviously that means more tropical storms in a few days but for now, it resonates with that ex-tropical  in the Pacific.

I am surprised that the storm Nuri, diminished so fast. I thought tat while it was at sea it would last a bit longer. Not that the Ex-tropical will be gone before late Sunday.

On Thursday, 6 November 2014 13:39:42 UTC, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
>
> If I am right and this is a Mag 7 then it could likely be a Mag 8 or at least over 7.6M.
>
> But at least that will kill the storms. Maybe keep the volcanoes down a bit too.
> And there won’t be any Bunting (and thus no Swarms.) Yes, in the middle of October we had some good volcanic eruptions, didn’t we?

How is it looking so far?
The seas look clear though we had thick mist this morning. A huge harmonic looks to be developing in the North Atlantic but the real firecracker is in the North Pacific. Pressures went down to 924 MB. That is pretty low for an extra tropical.

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sci.geo.earthquakes/goEcezdEX60

The BoM charts for the Southern Oceans show a large input of precipitate runs straight down off Madagascar to the South Pole and dispersing in 4 days 06:00 today, Sunday to 06:00 Thursday 13 November 2014. It sweeps around 60 degrees of longitude but recurves to the South Pole at 60 East. That is a virtually direct path. But it doesn’t wipe out on the shoreline as a major quake would do. And it far from rebounds as happens with volcanic activity and Tornadoes.

So look out for a major line storm.

19968214

Obvious bunting herewith that Low off Newfoundland. Almost what looks like a tornadic effect there too, where is the tropical storm to go with it?

19970844

Looks more like volcania that tropicana. Oddly it all goes missing in the charts from http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm. What you might call a momslap.

19971070

Now this IS volcanic.apart from the bunting, that is.

19971523

And here we have some harmony for a tropical storm. I wonder what day that is. I can’t read it on the edit page.

19972474 19972484

I have no idea what is going on above. This space left free intentionally.

19972685

And that’s it?

Well it does look interesting. An huge system with three centres you could fit Britain and Ireland in between. Let’s get the Australians in, shall we?

Here is that 4 day run:

9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.006 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.012 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.018 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.024 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.030 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.036 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.042 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.048 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.054 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.060 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.066 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.072 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.078 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.084 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.090 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.096 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.102 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.108

Look at the two from Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The isobars are deep into Antarctica. That is line-storm country.

9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.114 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.120 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.126 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.132

Now things start to get tropical. Actually… things “started to get tropical” at 18:00 on Wednesday. But they are like plagues for spreading. First you notice a rash on one and the next thing… everybody’s dead.

9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.138 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.144 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.150 9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.156

But that’s all right. It ends with a super-cyclone. Most of us Whites don’t live where that matters.

9 November 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.162

God help everyone else.

2014110900_024 2014110900_048 2014110900_072 2014110900_096 2014110900_120 2014110900_144 2014110900_168 2014110900_192 2014110900_216 2014110900_240 2014110900_264 2014110900_288 2014110900_312 2014110900_336 2014110900_360

So according to these NA-EFS charts there is no earthquake and no major eruption. No tornadoes anywhere else though, so Line-storm it is. An humdinger.

It wasn’t classed as a line-storm or derecho but people died in it none the less. Italy copped the worst of it. I used to be able to forecast them in the days when I didn’t know any better. Northern Italy/South of France. but that was then.

The last of the past:

Date: 31 OCT-06 NOV 2014
Super Typhoon-5 NURI
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  12.80  136.80 10/31/14Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  12.70  136.00 10/31/20Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  12.80  135.40 10/31/12Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
  4  13.50  134.10 11/01/05Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
  5  13.00  133.90 11/01/00Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM
  6  13.60  133.10 11/01/19Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM
  7  14.30  133.30 11/02/00Z   60     - TROPICAL STORM
  8  14.90  133.10 11/01/18Z   75     - TYPHOON-1
  9  15.50  132.80 11/02/00Z   95     - TYPHOON-2
 10  16.20  132.70 11/02/06Z  120     - TYPHOON-4
 11  17.20  132.50 11/02/12Z  130     - SUPER TYPHOON-4
 12  17.90  132.30 11/02/18Z  155     - SUPER TYPHOON-5
 13  18.50  132.60 11/03/00Z  155     - SUPER TYPHOON-5
 14  19.00  132.90 11/03/06Z  155     - SUPER TYPHOON-5
 15  19.80  133.60 11/03/12Z  155     - SUPER TYPHOON-5
 16  20.50  134.30 11/03/18Z  145     - SUPER TYPHOON-5
 17  21.30  135.00 11/04/00Z  130     - SUPER TYPHOON-4
 18  22.10  135.50 11/04/06Z  125     - SUPER TYPHOON-4
 19  23.10  136.30 11/04/12Z  120     - TYPHOON-4
 20  24.00  136.90 11/04/18Z  105     - TYPHOON-3
 21  24.70  137.40 11/05/00Z  100     - TYPHOON-3
 22  25.70  138.10 11/05/06Z   90     - TYPHOON-2
 23  26.50  138.70 11/05/12Z   80     - TYPHOON-1
 24  27.30  139.60 11/05/18Z   75     - TYPHOON-1
 25  28.20  140.10 11/06/00Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM

Date: 30 OCT-05 NOV 2014
Hurricane-2 VANCE
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  11.00 -100.20 10/30/09Z   30  1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  11.50 -100.90 10/30/15Z   30  1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  11.50 -100.70 10/30/12Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  11.10 -100.80 10/30/18Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
  4  10.90 -101.10 10/31/00Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
  5  10.60 -100.60 10/31/06Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
  6  10.20 -100.50 10/31/12Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
  7   9.70 -101.20 10/31/18Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
  8   9.50 -101.50 11/01/00Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
  9   9.30 -102.30 11/01/06Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
 10   9.50 -102.70 11/01/12Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
 11   9.80 -103.80 11/01/18Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
 12  10.00 -104.90 11/02/00Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
 13  10.60 -105.90 11/02/06Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM
 14  11.90 -107.50 11/02/15Z   70   990 HURRICANE-1
 15  12.80 -108.60 11/02/21Z   75   985 HURRICANE-1
 16  13.70 -109.60 11/03/03Z   90   973 HURRICANE-2
 17  14.50 -110.30 11/03/09Z   90   971 HURRICANE-2
 18  15.30 -110.60 11/03/15Z   90   971 HURRICANE-2
 19  16.40 -110.80 11/03/21Z   95   965 HURRICANE-2
 20  17.40 -110.60 11/04/03Z   95   965 HURRICANE-2
20A  18.00 -110.40 11/04/06Z   95   965 HURRICANE-2
 21  18.40 -110.00 11/04/09Z   90   970 HURRICANE-2
21A  18.70 -109.80 11/04/12Z   85   973 HURRICANE-2
 22  19.30 -109.60 11/04/15Z   75   977 HURRICANE-1
22A  19.80 -108.90 11/04/18Z   60   983 TROPICAL STORM
 23  19.90 -108.90 11/04/18Z   60     - TROPICAL STORM
23A  21.10 -108.30 11/05/00Z   50   990 TROPICAL STORM
 24  20.90 -108.30 11/05/00Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
24A  21.70 -107.50 11/05/06Z   40   995 TROPICAL STORM
 25  21.50 -107.40 11/05/06Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 26  22.10 -106.30 11/05/12Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 27  23.20 -106.10 11/05/18Z   20     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION

And of course for the Atlantic:

Date: 22-28 OCT 2014
Tropical Storm HANNA
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  19.40  -92.90 10/22/00Z   30  1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  19.40  -92.30 10/22/06Z   30  1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  19.40  -92.40 10/22/12Z   30  1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  4  19.20  -91.70 10/22/18Z   30  1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  5  18.90  -90.90 10/23/00Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  6  14.50  -83.20 10/27/12Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  7  14.60  -83.90 10/27/18Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  8  14.50  -84.50 10/28/00Z   30  1005 TROPICAL STORM

Fancy starting as a depression but ending as a storm. 
Stranger things happen aaaah...

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