The BoM charts had been difficult to decypher recently and coupled with the mayhem not being carried out via the North America EFS, I just gave up on the blog. Here is yesterday’s BoM. It isn’t good enough but in a good way. I will tell you about it later.
The contours are “pointing” at South Africa. Pointing is an highly technical term for low pressure trough development. You can call it cyclosis if you wish to be whatever you want.
Growth is slow initially, that is is because all the action is taking place elsewhere.
A cyclone in the Atlantic for instance, approaches Africa and gets eaten by the developing system. Eaten is another highly technical term it means absorbed. It is all a bit like amoebas.
Gradually the system succumbs to chirality. That isn’t a posh name for Coriolis. The posh name for Coriolis is … I forget. Who cares?
It isn’t that. Coriolis’ “Effect” is for fools.
Notice how the system is still pointing at Africa?
Does the Coriolis Effect explain that?
OK, now we can see how things have grown. The system gets definition produced by compression. When isobars compress geoscientific things happen. I call it bunting after the way that aircraft behave in disturbed air. One moment things are all nice and laminar. The next, things tip over.
Also notice that the isobars not in the system recurve. Nothing about this stuff is in parallel lines. If you want to do an interesting experiment, measure out on a globe-atlas how many degrees away from other cyclones and recently developed geophenomena such as earthquake epicentres and maybe even volcanic eruptions the most highly compressed isobars are.
Here is a tip as we watch the system turn into a signal for a volcanic eruption, earthquake series and or high latitude storm(s)… the compression with take place on the side nearest the geophysics.
(It is all to do with Mach numbers, a fellow called Venturi and magic numbers invented by Navier and Stokes.)
Pay attention to what you are looking at. I can’t help thinking you are seeing a transformation that is not only a mathematical demonstration of the solution the the Navier Stokes Problem written in pictures but may have significant implications on the other Millennium Prizes too-even one recently solved.
The dark mass touches the shore of Antarctica and the angle of incidence as well as the rapid mixing with height, puts the brakes on the rotating forces. Something has to give. All sorts of new energies are released in the rapid decline of kinetic energy of the storm.
Wikipedia’s main article on Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness
The Navier–Stokes equations describe the motion of fluids. Although they were found in the 19th century, they still are not well understood. The problem is to make progress toward a mathematical theory that will give insight into these equations.
The floating bubble of high pressure that is the Indian Ocean’s Doldrums has been damaged. One portion has split off and the cyclone persists in pointing at it.
What is tearing its hair out?
Pressure strikes. Things fall back to a steady state. Energy defects or transforms and what remains inexplicably bleeds out.
Usually what happens is more absorption takes place and the isobars form scar tissue over that part of the planet, as if to heal it.
But not here.
It is happening. It is inevitable. When a new tropical storm arises following a massive one high on the classic Beaufort tables so high it took satellite data to classify, that next storm will be a low category. But it will be followed by a larger one. (They come in twos and threes.)
But in this instance what has happened is that part of the system has spun off and out to sea as a smaller cyclone with a life of its own.
Notice the small centre just to the right of the 100 degree East line of longitude. (There is another just like it to the right of the 140 degree East longitude (at Tasmania.))
These are seeding signals of volcanic activity. They tend to remain out at sea for several days whilst they drop down the side of Antarctica, opposite Africa.
Meanwhile the rest of the Southern Ocean just gets on with things.
The original system has already been replaced.
And just look at all that blue over South America
That is going to find an outlet that looks remarkably like the parallel isobars of another tropical storm signal.
When three offshore cyclonic systems form a straight line down the right hand side of these charts, you can be sure that there is a massive eruptive episode due.
However we don’t get massive volcanic eruptions without strong tropical storms too.
Hence the thick blanket of parallel isobars on the other side of the charts.
But it is early in the season yet and tropical storms are small, close to the equator and tend not to last too long.
But worse. The pressure pushing the doldrums north in the Summer is over. Things were easy to read on the Australian charts when the ice around Antarctica was a vast cold pool.
The ITCZ was constrained and answered to changes in pressure with elan.
Things come into closer contact with the waters of the Southern Ocean in Winter
They still hold true to the three Lows in a row rule though.
The problem is that the charts run out of road just as they come up to speed.
The other problem, I mentioned at the start of things, is that the pictures presented by the first days’ charts were showing a degree of finish that occurred in the forecasts several days earlier. Look at the isobars in the system I spent the most time discussing. When they dip into the continent the way they do they indicate stormy weather at high latitudes. We may have dangerous cyclones of out own. More so as with volcanism the heat that somehow gets into water in the foundations of the mountains appears to have been taken from regions that suffer blizzards accordingly.
There is a direct ratio of snow and cold weather to the energy values in volcanic activity. Needless to say I don’t know what it is.
I forgot to add the link to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:
And thought you might like to play some more with the idea the Coriolis Effect is about as effectual as a third trouser leg:
I was collecting all the chart output from the site but they went into hibernation for the winter rather like Britain’s RADAR air cover did last night. Look out for problems far removed from difficulties with computer centres yet closely related to airliners falling out of the sky.
Something for another thread there I think.