Julian Madden

I have never been a fan of cycles once I realised the cause of weather was not climatological. The problem with the El Niño Southern Oscillation  situation for example is that it relies on statistics composed of actual data.

This in turn leads to the belief that a clock is statistically absolutely accurate two times a day when stopped but one that gains or loses a fraction of a second every week is never accurate. This may be so but the statically accurate one is not reliable and the inaccurate one will get you to work on time every day.

I don’t know why I have got the name for this oscillation the wrong way around but i see no reason to correct the error. If you want to know more about the phenomena look up “Madden Julian”.

The useful thing about cycles is that they give you an idea of what to look for and some suggestions about predictability. Nothing more but then, little more is required than that.

What is missing it an appreciation of unpredictability such as you would learn from studying weather singularities:

At 00:00 the weather is substantially the same as the weather at 06:00 and at that it is not dramatically different from 03:00 and 09:00. From those time differentials you need to be able to gauge the increments of a few minutes here and there.

The crisis point comes at half past the hour but there is a peak performance as t 20 past and 20 to the hour that gives you a boost. From there you have to be aware what the next spell is likely to present and this is especially where the various climatic cycles come into their own.

We are in a volcanic period at present. It will eventually blow over and another cycle replace it. I am not a fan of Wikipedia any more but for socially accepted memes it does its job. (Just don’t try to think outside the box with them.)

Using the above time frame can you use the clock to create short-cuts to guesses about the lunar phase and the weather?

Yes, you can in fact produce an hexagon for the various likelihoods. They won’t be very accurate and certainly won’t be repetitively obvious. In the same way that you can not use a plain calendar to predict weather. Such almanacs have to be compiled with the experience of pratice and time. And even then local conditions apply.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.000There is a bulge on the sea level charts that indicate bulges in the ocean beneath that is produced by tidal surges from earthquakes:
 
gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.006*This is of course only my opinion but it is a good one if it is right.

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.012*Besides, it gives us some idea of fluid flow if true. Notice for example what happens to the twin eyed cyclone.

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.018*I am also presuming that the lighter shades are the places of most intensity. Presumably a method of transferring energy form one side of the ocean to another.

 

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.024*In which case, it may be possible to see a similar transferece of seismic energy from one side to the other. Furthermore there may also be a lateral component to the shift as with the latitude of transport of weather.

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.030*This would explain in some way why tropical storms run through recent epicentres and sub-tropical storms arrive with the earthquake and extra-tropical cold core storms are spent.

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.036*This would explain the subsequent rarity of Atlantic earthquakes in Britain.

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.042*However, we are now stuck with the seismic activity in the Mediterranean and Alaska also all down the Pacific coast.

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.048*Obviously the Pacific is large enough to rebuild spent energy reserves.

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.054*Just an idea but pay attention to the side of the twin cyclone that holds the most energy. Is there collusion where there is a lack of collision. Or does the balance submit more to my wishful thinking than to actual mechanics.?

gfs.npac.horiz.winds.sfc.2017051800.060*I wonder where Bogoslov and Cleveland are on here.

 

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2 thoughts on “Julian Madden

  1. I prefer to point people to the discussion page of Wikipedia so that people can make up their own minds what fake news they choose to believe:
    Simple English please from the talk page:
    I don’t consider myself a dumb guy. I am college graduate, a Mensa member, who teaches US history at a university here. My verbal SAT score was somewhere around 700 if memory serves. But I don’t understand the first sentences. What does “(MJO) is an equatorial travelling pattern of anomalous rainfall” mean?

    [I am guessing that the article (I have not read it) is referring to boundary waves in fluid dynamics called the Rossby Waves and to Jet Streams.]

    What does “equatorial traveling pattern” and “anomalous rainfall” mean? I came to Wikipedia to find out, in basic layman’s terms, what MJO means.
    [What it means when scholarly articles are larded to the gunnels with so much fat that they are opaque with it, is they don’t understand what they are saying themselves. When you don’t know what you are talking about blind your audience with science and baffle them with bullshit.]

    Could we re-write this into simple, 7th grade, newspaper level English?
    {Keep hoping. meantime look up a rainman called Crick. He made a name for himself after being derided by his immediate superiors but getting a glowing report from Hap Arnold.}

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_P._Krick
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Irving_P._Krick

  2. Now I remember:

    With the outbreak of World War II Arnold recruited Krick into the Air Force. Krick prevailed over other, scientifically inclined meteorologists: while they searched for causes of natural phenomena, Krick relied on analyzing historic patterns and cycles. He reused old weather maps that resembled current situation, arguing that future weather developments will most likely follow the recorded patterns – the same “weather typing” that brought him commissions from Hollywood studios.[6] Critics called Krick’s methods “canned memory”. The primitive methods and aggressive salesmanship made Krick an enemy of scientific elite like George Cressman and Carl-Gustaf Rossby and Weather Bureau chief Francis W. Reichelderfer, who detested Krick as a “smug, supremely self-confident self-promoter”.

    This is exactly the same method I started using way back when. I only had copies of newspapers (that i couldn’t afford and didn’t want to read) to go by.
    Later when i gor a computer i tried to match hurricanes and earthquakes but founf=d it far to difficult to do.
    Later I read a book about the moon.

    And here I am today :~D

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