Piton de Fournaise

Piton de la Fournaise webcams / live data
Piton de la Fournaise volcano books | Tours
Piton de la Fournaise volcano eruptions:
1900, 1901, 1901, 1902, 1903(?), 1904, 1905, 1907, 1908(?), 1909, 1910, 1913, 1915, 1917, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1924, 1925-26, 1926-27, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933-34, 1935(?), 1936, 1937, 1938, 1938-39, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1947(?), 1948, 1948(?), 1950, 1951(?), 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955-57, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1964, 1964-65, 1966, 1972, 1973, 1973, 1975-76, 1976, 1977, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983-84, 1985-88, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1998, 1999, 2000 (Feb-March), 2001 (March-April), 2001 (June-July), 2002 (Jan.), 2002 (Nov-Dec), 2003 (May) – 2004 (Jan), 2004 (May), 2004 (Aug-Oct), 2005 (Feb-March), 2005 (Oct), 2005 (Nov), 2005 (Dec)-2006 (Jan), 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 (Oct), 2010 (Dec), 2014 (June), 2015 (Feb), 2015 (May), 2015 (Aug-Oct), 2016 (May, Sep), 2017 (Jan)
Typical eruption style: Effusive

adjective

1.

unduly demonstrative; lacking reserve:

effusive greetings; an effusive person.

2.

pouring out; overflowing.

tending to extrude.

2.

pertaining to extrusion.

3.

Also, effusive. Geology. noting or pertaining to a class of igneous rocks that have been forced out in a molten or plastic condition upon the surface of the earth.
Being untutored in these things I’d just call them volcanic, which serves to show what I know about these thing.
For instance had I known the above table was available anywhere I would have kept better notes about when I was experiencing pain.
I first became aware of a tune that I had with weather in 1976 and spent the rest of my life wondering if I was affected by demons. Even now I am not sure but it has been one hell of a ride! (apart from the depression that is. But it is nice to have an handle on it.)
Julius Caesar described us as superstitious but you can get that way (even hypochondriac) when you know something unusual  is causing you problems and you can never find out what it is.

On Wednesday, 17 May 2017 20:25:09 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> On Wednesday, 17 May 2017 13:01:56 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> > On Wednesday, 17 May 2017 11:24:04 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, 16 May 2017 20:56:24 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> > > > I opened the weather charts at 05:00 today so the NA-EFS had all night long to sort itself out. It took about 10 seconds to open the chart for the 17th. There was nothing special on that except that the air masses were arranged for storms:
> > > > Low High Low
> > > > High Low High
> > > > It is a pretty simple pattern to recognise. The other significant one is two adjacent similar air masses with a blocking air mass of a different type which is a signal for magnitude > > >
> > > > Such quakes are interesting for their indications of cyclognesis in the tropics.
> > > >
> > > > The other charts opened at 5 seconds for the 18th, 11 for the 19th, 2 for the 20th, 5 for the 21st and then I gave up waiting for the chart for the 22nd, thinking it must be a broken link. From time to time the site puts the same chart up on consecutive days so I back-spaced it to check.
> > > >
> > > > The chart for the 23rd is nondescript. It is so unremarkable I can’t describe it.
> > > > I had to put my reading glasses on and play around with the forwards and backwards. Then I realised it may develop into a severe earthquake at last.
> > > >
> > > > So don’t hold your breath. It may just be an eruption at Iceland or something. My spelling is shit this morning.
> > > >
> > > > The 29th and 30th were about 5 and 6 respectively the others all opened between 2 and 4 seconds. Now for the piece of resistance:
> > > >
> > > > There were/are 4 corrections to the Atlantic chart yesterday.
> > >
> > > About five or six boxes on the Unisys page this morning. Only yellow ones, I don’t think they take those as seriously as the red ones.
> >
> > Just coming up to noon (BST) and I loaded the NA-EFS charts with no real problem. the one ofr the 26th was a bit sticky but it did open before I checked back.
> >
> > After collecting four of them I noticed that I was getting the afternoon ones. I had been given yesterdays chats. Just a few minutes earlier I realised that one of the set of bookmark tabs I open twice a day had not opened. The Iris chart of earthquakes was missing:
> > http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/?
> >
> > I thought I must have had a brain fart yesterday and dropped it but, no it was still there in its sequence. Why didn’t it open?
> > Why did my computer reboot after I had just opened it?
> >
> > I don’t believe in fairies. Nor ghosts. But sometimes things that seems paranormal appear to appear. Most likely I am mistaken or have done something that just slipped my mind.
> >
> > I am especially prone to such things during this stretch of the Julian Madden oscillation.
> > It has been the bane of my life!
> >
> > Seriously it can impact your feeling of self worth when you think that these things are only going wrong for you. If it affects your body, your hormone production process for instance as can happen with lack of sunlight (Volcanic spells are notoriously dull) it can affect your long term health.
> >
> > Some people actually look forwards to the rain the way Europeans look forwards to snow. Obviously some of us get too much of a good thing but like honey etcetera, etcetera.
> >
> > The preceding verse is interesting:
> >
> > “By forbearance a ruler may be persuaded and a soft tongue breaks the bone.”
> >
> > There is a fine line between patience and inactivity. As long as both sides know who is in charge and who is having forbearance. Take for example the rioting that took place all over America, it is still winding down but the police for the most part used an hands-off approach.
> >
> > It seems to be averting treason.
> >
> > So I will just leave my computer to sort itself out. The spell will have run out by the next updates. No doubt web servers and their ITmen will be doing the same.
> >
> > It is all working now. By the time I’d written this the latest charts had opened and the were opening immediately, all of them. I still have a nasty twinge in my shoulde though, so somewhere something interesting is happening.
> >
> > Owch… a bad one.
> > Volcanoes Today, 17 May 2017: Shiveluch volcano, Dukono, Cleveland, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Bogoslof… and they bloody hurt too!
>
> https://wordpress.com/post/weathercharts.wordpress.com/5871

There is a lot more where that came from. The chevrons mark who said waht and when.

I joined a series of amateur writing groups looking for a way to improve my communication skills. I developed a bad style deliberately when I discovered sci.geo.earthquakes. The place was full of rampant muff-divers.whose sole raison d’être was to prevent any logical discussion about forecasting geo-phenomena. I discovered I had a talent for writing before I really knew what I was talking about. All I really understood was that I was going to be taking the “road less travelled”.

The result has been that apart from one or two spammers I have a blog that forecasts earthquakes which nobody reads. I once wrote to the British Army telling them about a likely ‘quake in Nepal. this brought the predictable results that I have become used to. And the last

It never rains but pause

Is it jut me, or has every computer on the planet taken a blow to the head this morning?
IDY20000.mslp-precip.006
I know that there is a lot of funny business going on in the world and the Usual Routines this spell are being upset.
IDY20000.mslp-precip.012
Or maybe it is just that my ISP is updating its servers?

My fingers are a little painful. The end digit in each finger seems to be sore with old splinters. Maybe I have eaten too much sugar again. I have noticed that I get the shakes when I OD with sugar.
IDY20000.mslp-precip.018
Or maybe it is the weather and possibly even a combination of all three and maybe others?
IDY20000.mslp-precip.024
Does that sound a little paranoid?
IDY20000.mslp-precip.030
The problem is that on my last blog, I started using html to write my threads because it was easier to put text in between images like that.
And now I am having to learn how to open blocks of images while still a pot of tea short of full cognisance.IDY20000.mslp-precip.036
Plus I am expecting a large earthquake to run concurrently with a large volcanic eruption in (possibly in) Iceland.
Let me show you:
2017051600_024
I usually only collect five of these things (twice a day, but who’s counting?)
There is a striking line of Lows running almost north/south up the east coast of North America.2017051600_048All of them adjacent, all of them touching. Maybe that is the only way one can represent such things on a chart.

In reality these things keep their distance. There again I live in a house I don’t get out of often enough these days.2017051600_072
When the Lows flow over the continental shelf these other things will happen. (Not tend to happen -this is a reality.)

It is a job for angels and we are not gods, we can’t possibly interfere with the weather and anyway, how do we know we can stop it safely?2017051600_096
The point is: Such a long sequence, if it pans out, will become an eruption and going by the way it lies on the land; I am pretty confident it has to be Iceland.2017051600_120
But what do I know?
I know I should have posted this last night but I was just too whacked to do so.
16 May 2017.1
Besides; taking time to think things through is a good thing is it not?
16 May 2017.2
Things look a lot clearer in the morning/with the Atlantic charts.
Whatever!
16 May 2017.3
But you can see that something pretty big is coming down on us, can you?16 May 2017.4
How many fronts do you need to see?
The Met Office even ran out of red ink with these things.
Fortunately someone must have had a spare bottle in his car because he went to get it by lunch break.
16 May 2017.5
Just in time by the look of it.
16 May 2017.6 Large earthquake do occasionally (but rarely) occur with Large eruptions.
Why is that?
And why are eruptions so common with storms?
16 May 2017.7
The fact is, earthquake are a factor in storms but there is a cut off point with the magnitudes involved.16 May 2017.8
I am sill working on what they are And I really don’t know what limits there are to what they mean.

Seismic signal of this morning’s explosion at Cleveland (CLCO station, located 15.5 km (9.6 miles) east of Cleveland) (AVO) A small explosion occurred from the volcano last night at 19:17 local time (03:17 UTC this morning), the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) reported. more

Take for example the hiatus in earthquakes immediately prior to a tropical storm. (Why does it have to be tropical?)

Let us just look at facts. Not statistics. Facts! this for Ella and Donna two cyclones in the same region.
Cyclone- Cat. 4 Donna 02-10 May 115 knots
Cyclone-Cat. 1 Ella 09-14 May 75 knots        1
From the recent USGS postings the signal for Donna was:

2017-05-05

2017-05-05

2017-05-05

2017-05-05

2017-05-05

2017-05-04

2017-05-04

2017-05-04

2017-05-04

2017-05-04

2017-05-04

2017-05-04

2017-05-04

2017-05-03

2017-05-03

2017-05-03

2017-05-03

2017-05-03

2017-05-03

2017-05-03

2017-05-03

2017-05-03

5:9

3:41

2:53

1:49

1:23

22:55

22:13

15:47

11:10

5:40

5:22

3:13

2:28

20:3

18:45

17:24

12:42

8:53

5:36

5:9

5:8

4:47

39.4749

-28.6648

-5.6347

-10.356

-23.7962

9.4386

-9.889

72.7049

39.5201

28.1479

32.6836

59.887

-8.6125

39.5039

51.6346

-56.0293

-16.136

42.1441

39.5178

-59.7975

71.1991

39.51

71.4438

-71.6388

110.0871

118.9033

-175.8

-78.3476

107.4986

2.9459

71.4785

104.9158

130.6604

-136.7538

-74.35

71.4757

-178.5023

-26.7022

-73.4694

46.9653

71.3464

-27.4022

-8.563

71.4027

27km NNW of Karakenja, Tajikistan

86km W of Vallenar, Chile

116km NW of Batang, Indonesia

76km SSW of Kahale, Indonesia

286km SSW of `Ohonua, Tonga

19km NW of Playon Chico, Panama

207km ENE of Flying Fish Cove, Christmas Island

Norwegian Sea

31km N of Karakenja, Tajikistan

33km N of Zhaxi, China

0km W of Uto, Japan

94km WNW of Skagway, Alaska

34km SE of Pucallpa, Peru

30km N of Karakenja, Tajikistan

37km SW of Tanaga Volcano, Alaska

80km NNE of Visokoi Island, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands

97km WNW of Camana, Peru

12km WSW of Kumukh, Russia

34km NNW of Karakenja, Tajikistan

98km SSW of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

31km N of Olonkinbyen, Svalbard and Jan Mayen

32km NNW of Karakenja, Tajikistan

5.8 mww

4.7 mwr

4.8 mb

4.5 mb

4.9 mb

4.6 mb

4.7 mb

4.6 mb

4.9 mb

4.9 mb

4.6 mb

4.5 mwr

5.3 mb

5.1 mb

4.5 ml

5.3 mb

5.1 mww

5.2 mb

4.8 mb

5 mb

4.8 mb

5.9 mww

I still have a lot of coding to learn. But I have much more important/interesting stuff to do first. The succinct points are that the signal began with a 5.9 mww. earthquake:
2017-05-03 at 04:47. 39.5N. 71.4E. 32km NNW of Karakenja, Tajikistan
and ended to all intents and purposes with a 5.8 mww earthquake at:
2017-05-05 at 05:09. 39.4N. 71.4.E. 27km NNW of Karakenja, Tajikistan.

The problem these days is that thesignal for a tropical storm is also the signal for a volcano. One problem comes with a solution that lends itself to us from the other side of the Julian madden oscillation:

The Froude-Beaufort Law. The period (time between) earthquakes of or above Gale Force indicates the approximate energy of the phenomenon that result from the singularity. For a Tropical depression the starting point on the scale is 12 to 15 hours. For a category 5 Hurricane the time lapse is something like 30 hours. There is an unlimited time period after this that I can only assume is the VEI energy value of an earthquake. I have no idea what the upper limit is.

The reasons for that are:
1. I have never lived through such a period and
2. There are no limits to how many volcanoes are going off at any one time.
In face the sump value of this lore is that all winds everywhere as well as all earthquakes, as far as I know, may be included. It is for example an arbitrary point that meteorology has decided that hurricanes are confined to the tropics.

But I honestly believe Meteorology is a science that prefers to stay in the Dark Ages rather than apply modern tech to its otherwise insurmountable problems. Bear in mind that the founder of the science was not familiar with the term hurricane eye.

Admiral FitzRoy believed the storm per se was caused by what was once understood to mean a meteor in present day astronomy. Once again you have to try to understand the mind-set of people who are still in the dark about geo-physics. Compare for an analogy a recent example of people being held back by what might be considered stuffy recidivists:

In the 1950’s a group of anarchic comedians wanted to present a series of radio programmes on the BBC. They came up with the idea of calling them selves The Goons after some characters that appeared in the Popeye cartoons during WW2:

Probably because one of the directors had not heard the show he looked at their name as The Go Ons. Perhaps as the saying was in those days: “The show must go on”.

These days with everything pre-recorded there is no fatality in a show’s immediacy. People rarely go to watch a play at a theatre but in the 1950’s everyone went to watch live entertainment. There was very little choice about anything else. Even radio’s were not that widely used although by then television was starting to become a “thing”.

The point is that during the peak of anyone’s lifetime it is possible to compare vast differences in social norms between the then and the now.

I can’t imagine a school full of children between 7 and 11 years old, sitting quietly listening to a radio in a school assembly hall, all of them paying attention. But in the 1950’s that is what a rare treat. And we would sit quietly, for that is how we all behaved at home.

Radios were not very big, the puny loudspeaker not very loud and more often than not reception was bad. Often you never knew if the set was broken or just warming up. They used valves and could get appreciably warm. At home the seating tended to range all around the single radio a family owned. It was more often than not like trying to watch a TV show from another room.

But I lived in an era when your toys would quietly disappear. Unless you broke them they would end up as someone else’s Christmas present. I used to envy children who had no brothers and sisters for they always seemed able to look after their toys.

What really got to me was that they never seemed to want to play with them.

J.O. Berkland

When I first discovered Usenet it wasn’t long before I found that there were groups online some of whom believed that earthquakes were forecastable. I never completely mastered what it was they were saying because I couldn’t make much sense of whatever. One person had created his own internet discussion group that he moderated. His name was Jim Berkland.

He was adamant that there is a correlation between tides and earthquakes in California. There were lots of co-incidents that he chose to claim as correct or close enough. But the mass of expert opinion was and is that his methods were too hit and miss.

His biggest problem was in the size of the earthquakes, because with a 4 or 5 M. there is nothing to worry about. On the other hand a 6 M. might bring a chimney pot or a dangerous old tree down. The trick for 6 M. earthquakes is to get out of the way. It doesn’t take much to be aware of what dangers lurk in your environment. Learn what they are.

A magnitude seven (7M.) is another matter entirely. You have to make sure that you are not in a brick or adobe house when one of them occurs. To do that these days requires your local government to have building codes and regulations. Only a few years ago a comparatively rich earthquake region did not enforce earthquake proof laws.

As far as I can tell Iran an oil rich country still doesn’t have building codes that cater for earthquakes. But maybe I am judging them by the conditions that Kurds live in. I gather nobody in Iran wants to keep any Kurds alive. I may be misjudging a people I know nothing about but I think Iran treats its Christians like the Germans and Russians treated Jews.

That is why you can still read about the Northridge earthquake, Bam and various other ones. Northridge was only a Mag. 6.7. Bam was a 6.6 M. But they did as much damage as most of the torndoes depicted in the film Twister: https://fmovies.is/film/twister.1vqw https://fmovies.is/film/twister.1vqw/1npx2m

(I think that the fake storm that hit Wakita would have been a part of a system that was equal to a Magnitude 7.5 or more and that event would have developed into a volcanic eruption that lifted millions of tons of debris, further down the line.)

Shake_Map_Northridge_1994

Northeidge quake.California

The epicentre is easy to find on Wikipedia but doesn’t carry across to my blog very well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:1994_Northridge_earthquake.

What Jim Berkland was doing was attempting to analyse animal behavious, looking for anomalous behaviour. This was also something the Chinese Geo-Physicists attempted with the forecast for a quake in Tangshan, during the mid 1970’s. His problem was that he never learned about the full sequence of events that happen with earthquakes. How could he?

You can’t really equate tornadoes with earthquakes especially in regions where people are close knit compared to regions filled with neighbours of racial, colour, religions and political differences; neither of those in regions like China with corrupt governments prone to acts of genocide. In Thibet they used to build with a course of wood every three courses of stone. Then the chines made them build with rubbish concrete and grow rice.

So standards are prone to politics. Now all construction there requires very poor concrete as they have chopped down all the trees and called it Global Warming. So ideas work against learning and culture too.

But people can make quite good guestimates from surveying damage compare for example the mock damage depicted at Wakita in the above film.

They needed debris and lots of it to simulate tornado damage. Wakita had ready-to-destroy structures that could be transformed into debris. “Jeff Foxworthy says you might be a redneck if a twister hits your town and does $100,000 worth of improvements,” Wade said. “And we pretty much think he was talking about us at the time.”

 

There are sites online where people have tried to compare energy values my guess is that a magnitude 7.5+ earthquake would do that sort of damage but the problem is that some officials like to make comparisons to atom bombs. Until we can accept that they are predicable and know what the cause of earthquakes is, we can never hope to be right.

Jim Berkland was a trained surveyor and worked on earthquake prediction as an hobby. That doesn’t prove he knew what he was talking about. The fact is that geology has set the bar too high for reality to be permitted to make intrusions. OTOH you can’t expect people to sleep out in the rain or cold just to be safe from an event that might not happen.

There was an earthquake that struck California at Reseda, Northridge too. You can’t compare fiction and reality; Loma Prieta with Wakita where no winds blew. There was a dam broke some place called Mullholland, unfortunate occurrence befall us all. But we are free, free to make decisions. We are free too, to forget about it all. We grow, learn, become an happy family. Grow old and die, a place beyond recall. Remember your god in the time of coming manhood, incline your heart to learn about it all.

What was it Mr Berkland missed?

He didn’t learn how rainfall produces anticyclones out of cyclones. He spent too much time talking to and arguing with petty trolls. An old man deserved to be treated with more respect than that. He concentrated on tidal theory without realising that all the planets with the sun and every star in the galaxy can not influence one particle of air or water more than the earth can, no matter how close they get nor how they line up. And he believed, to the exclusion of all alternatives.

Newton was capable of admitting error, or at least lived in an era when he could blame others and thus move on. The degree of understanding was still pretty much that of a belief in magic and dogma. It still is in some places. He died in the era when everyone still believed the mass media’s version of “news“.

So did J.O.B. three centuries later. Today the Internet is bringing down idols. Everything once held as sacrosanct is up for debate. James Berkland never got that chance.