Piton de Fournaise

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Piton de la Fournaise volcano eruptions:
1900, 1901, 1901, 1902, 1903(?), 1904, 1905, 1907, 1908(?), 1909, 1910, 1913, 1915, 1917, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1924, 1925-26, 1926-27, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933-34, 1935(?), 1936, 1937, 1938, 1938-39, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1947(?), 1948, 1948(?), 1950, 1951(?), 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955-57, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1964, 1964-65, 1966, 1972, 1973, 1973, 1975-76, 1976, 1977, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983-84, 1985-88, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1998, 1999, 2000 (Feb-March), 2001 (March-April), 2001 (June-July), 2002 (Jan.), 2002 (Nov-Dec), 2003 (May) – 2004 (Jan), 2004 (May), 2004 (Aug-Oct), 2005 (Feb-March), 2005 (Oct), 2005 (Nov), 2005 (Dec)-2006 (Jan), 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 (Oct), 2010 (Dec), 2014 (June), 2015 (Feb), 2015 (May), 2015 (Aug-Oct), 2016 (May, Sep), 2017 (Jan)
Typical eruption style: Effusive

adjective

1.

unduly demonstrative; lacking reserve:

effusive greetings; an effusive person.

2.

pouring out; overflowing.

tending to extrude.

2.

pertaining to extrusion.

3.

Also, effusive. Geology. noting or pertaining to a class of igneous rocks that have been forced out in a molten or plastic condition upon the surface of the earth.
Being untutored in these things I’d just call them volcanic, which serves to show what I know about these thing.
For instance had I known the above table was available anywhere I would have kept better notes about when I was experiencing pain.
I first became aware of a tune that I had with weather in 1976 and spent the rest of my life wondering if I was affected by demons. Even now I am not sure but it has been one hell of a ride! (apart from the depression that is. But it is nice to have an handle on it.)
Julius Caesar described us as superstitious but you can get that way (even hypochondriac) when you know something unusual  is causing you problems and you can never find out what it is.

On Wednesday, 17 May 2017 20:25:09 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> On Wednesday, 17 May 2017 13:01:56 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> > On Wednesday, 17 May 2017 11:24:04 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, 16 May 2017 20:56:24 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> > > > I opened the weather charts at 05:00 today so the NA-EFS had all night long to sort itself out. It took about 10 seconds to open the chart for the 17th. There was nothing special on that except that the air masses were arranged for storms:
> > > > Low High Low
> > > > High Low High
> > > > It is a pretty simple pattern to recognise. The other significant one is two adjacent similar air masses with a blocking air mass of a different type which is a signal for magnitude > > >
> > > > Such quakes are interesting for their indications of cyclognesis in the tropics.
> > > >
> > > > The other charts opened at 5 seconds for the 18th, 11 for the 19th, 2 for the 20th, 5 for the 21st and then I gave up waiting for the chart for the 22nd, thinking it must be a broken link. From time to time the site puts the same chart up on consecutive days so I back-spaced it to check.
> > > >
> > > > The chart for the 23rd is nondescript. It is so unremarkable I can’t describe it.
> > > > I had to put my reading glasses on and play around with the forwards and backwards. Then I realised it may develop into a severe earthquake at last.
> > > >
> > > > So don’t hold your breath. It may just be an eruption at Iceland or something. My spelling is shit this morning.
> > > >
> > > > The 29th and 30th were about 5 and 6 respectively the others all opened between 2 and 4 seconds. Now for the piece of resistance:
> > > >
> > > > There were/are 4 corrections to the Atlantic chart yesterday.
> > >
> > > About five or six boxes on the Unisys page this morning. Only yellow ones, I don’t think they take those as seriously as the red ones.
> >
> > Just coming up to noon (BST) and I loaded the NA-EFS charts with no real problem. the one ofr the 26th was a bit sticky but it did open before I checked back.
> >
> > After collecting four of them I noticed that I was getting the afternoon ones. I had been given yesterdays chats. Just a few minutes earlier I realised that one of the set of bookmark tabs I open twice a day had not opened. The Iris chart of earthquakes was missing:
> > http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/?
> >
> > I thought I must have had a brain fart yesterday and dropped it but, no it was still there in its sequence. Why didn’t it open?
> > Why did my computer reboot after I had just opened it?
> >
> > I don’t believe in fairies. Nor ghosts. But sometimes things that seems paranormal appear to appear. Most likely I am mistaken or have done something that just slipped my mind.
> >
> > I am especially prone to such things during this stretch of the Julian Madden oscillation.
> > It has been the bane of my life!
> >
> > Seriously it can impact your feeling of self worth when you think that these things are only going wrong for you. If it affects your body, your hormone production process for instance as can happen with lack of sunlight (Volcanic spells are notoriously dull) it can affect your long term health.
> >
> > Some people actually look forwards to the rain the way Europeans look forwards to snow. Obviously some of us get too much of a good thing but like honey etcetera, etcetera.
> >
> > The preceding verse is interesting:
> >
> > “By forbearance a ruler may be persuaded and a soft tongue breaks the bone.”
> >
> > There is a fine line between patience and inactivity. As long as both sides know who is in charge and who is having forbearance. Take for example the rioting that took place all over America, it is still winding down but the police for the most part used an hands-off approach.
> >
> > It seems to be averting treason.
> >
> > So I will just leave my computer to sort itself out. The spell will have run out by the next updates. No doubt web servers and their ITmen will be doing the same.
> >
> > It is all working now. By the time I’d written this the latest charts had opened and the were opening immediately, all of them. I still have a nasty twinge in my shoulde though, so somewhere something interesting is happening.
> >
> > Owch… a bad one.
> > Volcanoes Today, 17 May 2017: Shiveluch volcano, Dukono, Cleveland, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Bogoslof… and they bloody hurt too!
>
> https://wordpress.com/post/weathercharts.wordpress.com/5871

There is a lot more where that came from. The chevrons mark who said waht and when.

I joined a series of amateur writing groups looking for a way to improve my communication skills. I developed a bad style deliberately when I discovered sci.geo.earthquakes. The place was full of rampant muff-divers.whose sole raison d’être was to prevent any logical discussion about forecasting geo-phenomena. I discovered I had a talent for writing before I really knew what I was talking about. All I really understood was that I was going to be taking the “road less travelled”.

The result has been that apart from one or two spammers I have a blog that forecasts earthquakes which nobody reads. I once wrote to the British Army telling them about a likely ‘quake in Nepal. this brought the predictable results that I have become used to. And the last

Compression

One of the first things I noticed about the North Atlantic charts is that:

Before an earthquake occurs, the Blocking Lows in the North Atlantic show the blackened signs of compression when an earthquake is due. And that the distance to the earthquake is going to be somewhere 80 degrees from the centre of the darkest mass of isobars.

Another thing that I noticed, at around that time, was that earthquakes often seem to line up on a globe. I specify a “globe” because on a two dimensional atlas of the kind that most people are familiar with, such lines are slightly curved as if arranged along Rumb Lines.

A case in point are the low magnitude earthquakes available on the Iris charts just now:

Iris.png
http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/?

Look at the ones that run from Oklahoma through Oregon to Unimak in the Aleutian chain (or do I mean any one of the adjacent ones up in the North Pacific like the ones in the line from Central Alaska to Andreanof (or do I mean Kuril Islands.)

Rhumb Lines are spirals used by navigators to make sense of the square grids used in Cartesian cartographics.
Who know; maybe they would make sense out of the spiral warm fronts housed in Blocking Lows that precede these earthquakes.

Speaking of earthquakes I can’t recall the last time we had so many chart corrections on the North Atlantic runs. Not even during the spate of super-quakes we cycled through, before these perpetual volcanic eruptions:

13.14 May 2017

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1494979200

I would ask for an explanation from uk.sci.weather if I wasn’t being ignored by the Fake News there.
So instead, I draw the conclusion that the charts have been manipulated to take into consideration the butterfly effect of data that the models are not organised to show to wit:
The explosive contradictions that input from Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions cause.

But back to the NA-EFS; which is back up to scratch after yesterday’s noteworthy slow-down:

NA-EFS.png

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

This is a print screen to show you which boxes to tick to get the right set of charts open. These things are stored on an open server for a few days and might be worth looking at.

I can see that there is a large, if not a severe, earthquake due in the next 24 or so hours. (<7.) And the purpose of today's thread is to use what I hope I have recently learned from watching volcanoes to predict the direction along which it may most likely occur.

I know that it is hardly a demonstration of my faith that I use weasel word like might and may or likely but I do not know any more about any of this than god and his angels have chosen to demonstrate to us mere mortals, how miracles work this century.

What, for example, is the matter of faith if it not a conviction without more obvious evidence. It isn’t confidence; Jesus sent out his disciples for their first outing entirely lacking in faith, except that they be confident enough in him to do as he asked them:

He told them to go out healing the sick and to cast out demons, even to raise the dead. Imagine that, an appropriate name for the new religion of 2000 years ago was Ressurectionists, not Christians. (Perhaps when Satan offered him all the world’s governments, he inadvertently showed him Burke and Hare.) not that I think Satan would hold back from showing the worst that could happen if Jesus didn’t take control.)

Anyway they tried what he asked and like Peter with the fish with the gold coin in its mouth, they all came back totally amazed.

And yet after a couple of years of being able to do things like that, they were finally shown to be incapable of healing a sick child, -shortly before they all ran off at the murder of their master.

The point is they had had faith and they were all convinced. Yet they were all shown to be lacking one fundamental issue.
So now it is time for me to take a walk and ask WTH is going on?

For there is so much to learn.

OK. I have had a word with my creator and if I get it wrong you can like it or lump it. The point being I consider I have done my best:

2017051400_024

There is a line of Lows running east south east fro the top left corner to Cape Hatteras on the east coast of North America. If it wasn’t there yesterday and it isn’t there tomorrow, this means a quake of at least magnitude 7. Such phenomena are most likely to appear when the easternmost Low steps of the Continental Shelf.

The only problem is that there is a badly drawn cyclone in the middle of the line, so I suspect it will be a lower magnitude by about 0.5. (Something in the region of a 6.5M.) That is if it is not a volcanic eruption. The following charts are too vague to be certain.

This could be part of the same system, the NA-EFS is notoriously imprecise. If it is the same,system then it is an indication of more volcanism. Probably in Central America.

Here are the first two charts from yesterday the 13th May, 2017:

2017051300_024

The problem with them is that the low to the top left is out of sight on the forecast for the 14th, and that there is interference from the High above the line in the chart for the 15th:
2017051300_048

And as we know there was an eruption (quite a large one) yesterday:

13 May 2017.1

I didn’t mention it in my previous threads as it is dealt with quite well (IMO) in my other blogs. On the above chart you can easily see a plethora of air mass centres or eyes and several broken warm fronts like a scattering of eyeballs following a 24 hour race with Mike  Hawthorn.

If you can’t or won’t see it too bad, I dun my bit.