1st October 2014 first quarter @ 19:33

This should be a wet and windy spell. Warm too but I don’t think it is. The time of the phase is similar to the time of the full moon on the 9th of September. There are other similarities too.

I don’t intend to compare them (but I might) here are the Australian charts from the 2nd October 2014:

2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.006

A dark green line of precipitate reaches into Antarctica from the mid-Pacific. The dark mass forming on the coast means extra-tropical storms (aka mid-latitude cyclones.)2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.012 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.018 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.024 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.030A dark mass, to the left of it, forms in the South Atlantic.2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.036 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.042Once past the Greenwich Meridian it begins to form a dark disc.2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.048 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.054Whatever the tropical storm situation had been up to then, the cyclones are back there for certainty by early Saturday.2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.060The dark mass under Africa begins to touch the coast of Antarctica.2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.066 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.072 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.078 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.084But it is still there on Sunday2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.090 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.096Whilst it does fade, it is still extant on Monday and carries on around the continent. This indicates that whatever large quakes were in it earlier, they are transformed to volcanic stuff from then on.2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.102 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.108 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.114 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.120 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.126 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.132This is a classic volcano signal. The dark mass is still offshore on Wednesday.2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.138 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.144 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.150 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.156 2 October 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.162The isobars around the continent are almost entirely parallel to the coast in a complete circle for the entire period after the compressed system joined the other cyclone at 160 East, on Tuesday.

All in all, the situation is very similar to the set up for the spell from the 9th of September.

 

 

 

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The run up to the next significant volcanic eruptions.

I’m just compiling a run of the North Pacific OPCs in advance of the next volcanic eruptions. This is 29 August to 12 September with the 6 hourly charts posted in 2 second intervals:

29 August to 12 September 2014Note the splendid cyclone crowning the Aleutians is always a feature when impending tropical storms are about to defoliate the planet.

What you should be paying attention to is the feature that should not be there, the Anticyclones in the Gulf of Alaska.

If you can match them to previous data you have cracked it.

The 29th August 2014 eruption at Mount Tavurvu on the coast of Papua New Guinea took place with a brief Anticyclone spanning Alaska and Siberia:

17 to 31 August 2014

If you click on the images they will open and the dates of each chart can be read in the black box on the top of each one in the animation.

With the PNG eruption the signal I took for it came from the NA EFS:

2014082600_072

This one clearly shows a line of cyclones or Lows across North America a sure sign of either a large magnitude earthquake or if the run continues for more than a day impressive volcanic eruption.

Not a bad wake up call either as this was presented on the 26th. Only one problem is that the date of the chart is 1st September 2014.

2014082500_120 2014082500_144

I’d have put the 29th and 30 in the frame from the NA EFS on the 25th. But you can see the point of it all can you?

There is almost nothing I can see in the MetOffice charts tht indicate anything unusual for the 28th but immediately following the remains of Christobal runs right through the chart to Iceland.

29 August 2014 Mount Tavurvur

Something had been holding something back prior to that. But what?

A blocking High maybe?

As if weather is responsible for weather. No it was something else. It had to be something else. Something that causes blocking highs. Bear in mind tropical storms are blocking Lows. And this example was a deep depression long after it left the tropics.

Analysis charts and the difficulty of telling the difference between tornadoes and volcanoes

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/

You want the “Pacific Products” page and select the charts for the “North Pacific Surface Analysis”.

Next choose the 21 day loop (at the time of writing it is still on the 7 day loop, if your connection is a little slow but you aren’t.)

If you are running Linux select the Javascript application. Choose next how you want the thing to run. I choose display loop on the same page as it is easier to operate and save to my folders.

17 to 23 August 2014.OPC_PACRight; to business:

What you see as 21 August approaches is a modest anomaly.
Ordinarily the Gulf of Alaska houses the Aleutian Lows before they go ashore to water North America. With an extensive Antarctic ice sheet the surface pressures are not very different for Lows and Highs.

In northern waters pressure differentials can be quite striking. In the charts showing at present, a sea surface pressure of 1016 millibars constitutes a cyclone and one of 1028 mb an anticyclone.

Now look at the blocked situation on the west coast of North America. When a Low pushes through two fairly far apart anticyclones, tornadoes tend to dominate the following phenomena lists.

When the anticyclones are virtually connected as is the case with the egg-timer shaped system off the coast in the link, then the situation is relieved as volcanic events predominate.

On the 20th of August 2014 a cyclone does pass through two fairly widely spaced anticyclones:

20 August 2014.OPC_PAC 06

With the whole of the northern hemisphere experiencing unusually flaccid pressure differences (a period of low “Pressure Gradients”) the number and ferocity of tornadoes in North America is very mild. At the same time the development of Atlantic hurricanes seems to be put on hold.

I really can’t go along with interpretations of the Gilbert Walker cycles climatologists maunder on about these days. The Wikipedia article on the North Pacific systems is almost undecipherable to me. I have the greatest respect for Sir Walker though. His work at the Indian Meteorological Office was splendid:

 Sir Gilbert Thomas Walker, CSI, FRS,[1] (14 June 1868 – 4 November 1958) was a British physicist and statistician of the 20th century. He is best known for his ground breaking description of the Southern Oscillation, a major phenomenon of global climate, and for greatly advancing the study of climate in general.

 But I am seeing something else. The problem is that statistics merely “point towards trends” they do not tell anyone what is actually happening. Climatology has its place although I tend to avoid the subject like the plague. In weather forecasting we have:

Actual data on Analysis charts

“Butterflies” pointing to all sorts of possibilities on Forecast charts and…

Statistics.

Here is the US storm report for the 20th of August 2014:

140820_rpts

August is a time for Atlantic hurricanes not US tornadoes and whilst there is a marked absence of both in 2014, this chart at least shows that the winds in North America in this spell were strongest on the 20th.

You can check for yourself on this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140801_rpts.html

And here is the link for data on the Hurricane seasons: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php. Perhaps a more definitive discussion can be found at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

24 August 2014.NHC Four

As you can see, we are only on the fourth hurricane this season. It started in June and runs through to November. Normally we have had half a dozen by now. However it doesn’t fit any particular cycle to only compare data for one phenomena over a number of years; one has to take into account other geo-phenomena, that is the point of failure with statistics.

Compare the years 2005 with 2006 for example or 2013:

https://weathercharts.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/the-hurrican-storms-in-the-north-atlantic-1996-to-2013/