Volcanoes

Predicting volcanoes is the key to it all.

I can remember writing to the Japanese Embassy or somewhere in the early ‘90’s about the possibility of an earthquake there. It’s hard to believe anyone can be so naive. It’s a miserable confession to have to make.

And when I read, a short while later, that they were/had an earthquake drill, events didn’t do much to help me wise-up. …

The whole community of geology is as one that there is no way to predict earthquakes. Japan has spent millions on research into the possibilities of predicting them or the other side of it, attempts at earthquake mitigation. China, with no money in the days when they had a research office for earthquakes, had more success but of course they had no problem looking at the wisdom of the ancients.

China has money these days, so I imagine their efforts have become mainstream. Besides they don’t like talking about earthquakes, not even the success their citizens have had in the past. (People would start asking why medium sized quakes in China are so terribly disastrous.)

Over the last few years, I have been pointing out the varieties of ways that earthquakes can be predicted -without ever having been able to forecast where and very seldom, when. None the less, I have proven to my own satisfaction that earthquakes CAN be forecast. (I have even produced a method of forecasting when either a series of quakes, or a very large earthquake, would be unlikely -or that the likelihood of a predicted earthquake would be over.)

Not long ago (in early June 2013) I realised how it was possible to predict volcanic eruptions.
Proving it is not that difficult: I just have to make predictions.
It’s not a method that is likely to appeal to science but who gives a stuff about them?
What has science ever managed with all the money and all time in the world?

Contemporary science, geology and seismology, has literally had a lifetime to get on board the boat. Some of their demands for predicting earthquakes are fairly reasonable; one ancient boner is that the prediction has to hit a target far in smaller than its equivalent meteorological window. Geologists (self proclaimed losers) are confident that nobody can make a prediction of exactly when an earthquake will occur along with a prediction to within a few miles of where it will occur and within a very close tolerance, how large such a quake would be.

Some idiots, in a desire to purify their claims, will even bend their silly rules to make sure that not even a reasonable window can be hit by rearranging the magnitude goal posts. (That latter claim being made by a Californian ear-tone sensitive.)

I was talking to someone online on the 12th of July 2013. She drew my attention to the number of earthquakes in the range of 6 to 7 M that day and the news of volcanic activity. I wasn’t moved at all that there had been so many, it isn’t a rare occurrence and it shouldn’t be debilitating -not to a civilised country.
And the volcanic stuff was just “ongoing”.

I was feeling mellow and disinterested.
Lately, I have lost all sense of urgency in almost everything that I have been interested in, even earthquakes. This malaise has been going on for a couple of weeks now and to be honest is a fairly laid back feeling that is quite pleasant. I can see how early colonists in the USA found the locals “trying” when they appeared so lackadaisical. But why would they hurry to work at something when they had already accomplished as much as they needed?
Those self same self-righteous foreigners would castigate them for indolence, then, in the same speech, tell of their amity, peace and social equity -socialism.

In other words the white invaders wanted the original Americans (or whatever would be the true name(s) for the continents we Europeans call the Americas) to be up and out, hunting to extinction all that they could in order to supply the wants of a few rich people in a country the natives had never heard of and couldn’t care less about, while the locals were happy enough with what they had and saw no need to upset the balance of nature to buy bigger weapons to go hunting with.

It’s a bit like a crystal meths Tweaker telling a man who had just smoke some marijuana to shake himself.
I don’t smoke pot and I can see that there might be a case for taking uppers to get a “rush” but what one would want to do that for beats me. I’d much rather be “laid-back” in my “groove” enjoying “peace”, man. It literally does feel “cool”.

So a few hours ago I woke up and pondered a bit -as I am sometimes want to do before dropping back off to sleep. Tonight it was back on with the problems of geo-physics (something I have been neglecting recently.) Earlier I had been talking to a girl I know about the above and responded to her plaints with a link to one of the charts she had sent me (BoM’s sea level chart for the southern hemisphere given out to T+60 hours from the morning of 12th July 2013.)

In the cursory look I had taken at her insistence, I found the date for which the black mass at the confluence of the two continents Antarctica and South America disappears -or, at least, diminishes. It just occurred to me that such a series that ended with that chart tells us all just about when a volcanic sequence is likely to end.

So here then, is the key:

If the sequence ends with the dark mass along the Chile Palmer Land mountain ranges; it stand to reason that the precipitate forming along that line would be the signal we need to say that a lot of volcanic activity is on the way.
Am I right?]
Or am I right?

All I have to do now is compare the charts from when I first noticed the masses forming there (at the same time that we saw the increase in volcanic activity.) What I really need now is an amanunonsense to compile an animation of the first four charts from every day since June to the day the volcanic events ease.

Who do I know who is a little bit of a dope and I can palm this off to?

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40 thoughts on “Volcanoes

  1. Of all the gaps in the mountain chain that runs from the Aleutians to the Macquarie Ridge the one that holds the key to earth-science as far as the beginning of this century is concerned is the Drake Passage.Forget Panama, this place is going to be famous; the centre of attention of the next generation of students of Earth Science. Drake’s Passage runs between the tip of South America and the mountains that run through Antarctica starting at Palmerland.Actually the mountains curve out under the sea to the South Sandwich Islands returning to Argentina via the Falklands. This subterranean basin is a cone that is almost the exact shape of the continental shelf of South America from Valparaiso to Montevideo.It is roughly the size of the Gulf of Mexico extended to the foot of the Appalachians and carried out from Jacksonville, Florida through the channel between Cuba and Haiti on down to Maracaibo (of which, more later…)How an undersea ridge of whatever shape can affect the way the planet operates is something that only god knows at the moment. It ought to be born in mind that the Macquarie Ridge runs up like the roots of a tree to the most seismically active lands in the world; the ridge is in fact the main earthquake road to Japan and Kamchatka.What does it do?Up to the coming end of the iceday this Septemberish, the coast around Antarctica has been half blocked by a growing blanket of ice reaching out from the South Pole. This year (2013) since June (its polar midnight) there has been an almost continual build up of pressure along that coastline, a literal black Sabbath whenever there were extreme volcanic events.Storms from Indonesia and Malaysia run down the east coast of Australia, past New Zealand to the South Pacific and pirouette into that enclave through the Drake Passage, coming to a brief rest on Antarctica at the Weddle Sea and its various ice shelves.At the passage, these are huge cyclones, easily 10 degrees in diameter. You can’t get a true image of the things of course, they are combinations of various satellite processes compounded in a computer model run. They give no sign of how the winds get back out of the polar waters.But obviously they are waves and not inhalations of air disappearing into some black hole as at the centre of a galaxy.But they are not silent. Where the noise goes from there -if it goes anywhere and does anything, I can’t say.

  2. Point to note:When the mass of precipitate the builds up at the mouth of the Drake Passage, it leads to volcanic activity elsewhere, it also initiates (in a manner of speaking) thundery weather over western Europe. Britain tends to have warm humid weather and the Met Office Atlantic charts will hold numerous black arcs portraying fronts that denote thunder. This situation will run for the length of the spell -which may well run through a number of lunar phases.As of the 14th of August 2013, there is a markedly large dark cyclone on the tips of the peninsulas of the Drake Passage. A complex of occluded fronts in the North Atlantic sweeps through Britain bringing with it thunderstorms by the 17th at which date the forecast from yesterday runs out.On the Australian charts for the same day the mass at the mouth of the passage bleeds a way through (emerging south of Africa where it may be signalling a series of severe earthquakes.) The system does not appear to have died entirely though. I assume this means that come the 17th or 18th the volcanoes that were erupting will die back to a threatening grumble until later.Things appear to be a lot more calm by the middle of Sunday the 18th and that’s how things stay until the end of those Australian runs. I am not inclined to make forecasts these days but looking at the NOAA OPC charts, fronts run from Greenland to the NW Atlantic Basin (the Bahamas) where it ends. “Things happen” at the ends of those fronts, especially the large ones.Maybe it picks up again over the equator and heads to Chile and the Argentine border. Or maybe it institutes an Atlantic hurricane. I have no real idea. Maybe it just peters out. But it is not unlikely that the Caribbean could have a severe quake.If the fronts had continued over the USA through Canada to the Aleutians, I would have had no hesitation in stating more volcanic excesses in the Aleutian and Russian chain -or more earthquakes there, as in more stable years.One more coincidence -if there is such a thing in this business:The outline of the basin beneath the Drake Passage fits along the Appalachians from Nova Scotia to Miami and out to sea where those fronts end up. Turn the outline over and put it along the West Indies and the outline then fits where the other left off.Don’t see what I mean?Get yourself a globe and a piece of transparent plastic and draw it out for yourself. You will appreciate my words much more if you make an effort to get involved with them.It has something to do with harmonics, of that I am convinced. But how and why?When I use terms like cause and effect with reference to weather occurring on different parts of the globe, I am merely talking about conditions that tend to prevail at the time. God knows what the root cause is.

  3. Amelioration.Nothing that is too good to believe ever comes without a nice little codicil. This one might be of use to anyone nursing an heart patient: The incidence of heart problems will be seen to increase with this situation, therefore, when you see these forecasts you can ask the patient to fast so that the heart is eased of a little stress.Contusions that are endemic in the west due to an overdose of protein in our diet are at their worse (as witnessed by the cramps and nerve problems felt in such weather) everyone who has a bad back, arthritis, rheumatism or leg cramps etcetera will feel similarly.Fasting is the fastest way to clean the system in preparation for calamity. And a three day fast is the ideal length of time -which just happens to be the lead these BoM charts can give us. Whilst fasting you might care to dwell on this account of a test of such a pleasance for the follow up: Daniel chapter1 verses 8 to 16.The lads seemed to appreciate the effectiveness of water. Drinking alcohol when you are suffering from cramps enhances your problems. The best way to deal with cramps is to take an analgesic such as ibuprofen and wash your system out with clean water.If you are prone to cramps, get medical advice about how to deal with them.Immediately bending the tendons back from the way that they pull in a cramp is imperative. Catching a cramp before it tightens can stop it causing a tremendous amount of pain and a lot of residual damage.Learn to recognise the signs of their onset:For me, a bout always seems to occur immediately following my stretching with a yawn. I will even yawn in my sleep, can you believe?I have learned to recognise the fact even when asleep and immediately wake up and slide out of bed as quick as I can to press my foot hard down on the floor to try and put the tendon back as if it has dislocated.Failure to react quickly enough can mean bruised feelings for a day or two, not to mention considerable and unrelieving pain. You can get the tendon stretched back if you know how but by then it is too late. If that happens I have to get up and walk about, maybe have a cup of tea. Fatigue is then another problem.If I realise I am yawning and am alert enough to jump to my own rescue, I can go back to sleep. But it will be a fitful night broken with many episodes and it’s all down to eating too much protein.

  4. OK, symptoms:Clag:This is the first stage of anticyclonic activity. I have given this name to the overcast phenomena that brings dull cool weather to Britain until someone comes up with something better. It is first signalled in the BoM charts with a series of very large cyclones all around Antarctica.The systems engendered are few and vast; stretching between continents and displacing the anticyclones normally found between Africa, Australia and South America. A period of anomalous weather behaviour is apparent then, to those who are on the watch for it, most noticeably the normal course of storm tracks becomes reversed.This is vengeance on the silly fools who pedantically peddle nonsense about stuff like Coriolis Effect. The precipitate on those BoM charts for example was running in the exact opposite direction of cloud seen dropping towards the pole from Australia. Instead of moving South East, they were (are) moving South West on the forecasts. And they are moving in almost the exact same angle but mirrored.Triangles:After those huge cyclones appear, they elongate into triangular patterns, large enough and with an overall smoothness capable of signalling tropical storms. And tropical storms do appear but they are seldom powerful enough to produce hurricane force winds.These triangles are elongations holding several storm centres that move about each other. when these break they just seem to fade away without going anywhere.Spawn of StormsI believe there is a correct term for this final phase but I am not meterorologically adept enough to know what it is. Out of the last of the blocked Lows comes a small intense storm that finally makes landfall at Antarctica. This one made it to the region south of Australia which was poetically the region below Sumatera whence the precipitate forming it must have come originally.Following the forecast of this little beauty's demise a line of cyclones is forecast to follow it. These all lined up from the region south of Africa. I imagine they are still showing on the charts:http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=SH&model=GYes there they go, two out of three left. In a straight line too. Nice one.But this chart is not the only one showing a marked pattern. The Canadian EFS has been playing silly beggars and looks to continue doing so until about the 25th or 26th September.The North Atlantic, adept as ever has also been showing symptoms. Those of the wayward running for example. That ended with yesterday's charts. So when you see such anomalies get out of bed and start packing. As soon as the conditions normalise there will be an eruption.Don't binge on chips and sugar puffs fool. (Well at least I kept out of the pub. 2 0ut of 3 ain't bad.)

  5. Originally posted by Huffington Post:

    "More than 3,000 people have been evacuated from a two-mile radius of Mount Sinabung, Karo district, North Sumatra province, after erupted violently before dawn on Sunday 15th September 2013. Indonesia's Sumatra island spewing rocks and red-hot ash onto surrounding villages.It was the second recent eruption of Sinabung. The volcano was dormant for nearly 100 years before erupting in August and September 2010, forcing about 12,000 people to flee.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/15/sumatra-volcano-eruption_n_3929293.htmlI had been expecting another eruption since the beginning of September following the behaviour of the weather charts published by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.But I was finally alerted to look for this news early on Monday the next day after suffering severe leg cramps. Weird I know but then I am weird. But hey it has to happen to someone.I'll review my ideas about the charts later today and post them in their own thread later. Meantime anyone got the cure for cramps in the inner thigh?I can't go around bent and hobbling just because of some temporary excruciatingly unbearable pain like the hero I am, just because of some damned volcano. I did an Homer Simpson last night and binged on a whole box of sugar puffs.(If you know there is going to be an eruption cut down on all foods and drink enough fluids preferably water and certainly no alcohol. Your best diet will likely be boiled green veg and acidic fresh fruit. But don't take my word for it, I got caught with my pants down despite knowing it was overdue.)

  6. Tropical Storm Humberto makes it's appearance on the North Atlantic charts today (Tuesday 17 September 2013.) It is unusual to get an ex Tropical storm here still intact. They are usually declared extra-tropical by then, having changed the way they absorb energy from the surrounding "weather".All it mean in reality is that there have not been any winds capable of knocking it sideways. And that the course of air currents in such "stable" instability is due north. This is in keeping with the general behaviour of such cycles which has been very erratic lately. The last such year IIRC was 2006/2007.We do get ex hurricanes from the USA, we also get them from Mexico and Canada when the North Americans have finished with them. That's how our weather works. It generally comes off the Pacific one place or another , waters that continent and then generally leaves from Newfoundland for Iceland.Sometimes it comes from Florida and sometimes it comes from Florida via Mexico. But this week it is coming up from Cape Verde, the place where Africa's five day waves become the North Atlantic's hurricanes.To sum it all up then, this is unusual because it has fed this direction and because it has not been marred by wind-shear.The reason it has done that is that there hasn't been any cross-wind anywhere to sheer. It has all been knocked off the charts by Blocking Highs.So, which comes first, the volcanic activity or the blocking highs?From a newsletter sent out bu a storm chasing team:Originally posted by TVNweather.com:

    Devastating and record-shattering Colorado Floods. Recap of historic rainfall and flooding event in Colorado FoothillsA rare combination of atmospheric conditions came together over the southwest U.S., setting the stage for a record-breaking rainfall event over the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, especially across the highly populated Colorado Foothills Region during September 9-15. Several locations reported over a foot of rain from this event, including locations around Boulder, Aurora, and W Colorado Springs. The top panel in the figure below shows radar-estimated total rainfall amounts during this week period, which is very representative given the close comparison with real measurements.Here are some of the highest rainfall totals I have found so far:21.13" SE Boulder, 3.3 miles from downtown15.04" Just NE of Aurora, CO15-20" across Pike's Peak to W Colorado Springs, CO areaNeedless to say this tragic week-long flooding event has shattered records. As just one of the many striking examples, 9.08" of rain fell in Boulder on September 12 alone, nearly doubling the previous daily record of 4.80" on July 31, 1919. To put this in perspective, many locations in the Colorado Foothills Region received their annual average TOTAL during this one-week flood event. The lower panel above shows the annual precipitation for the state of Colorado. Imagine if this were winter! A local meteorologist in the Denver area stated this would be a 16-20 foot snow event for this area if during winter/spring and sufficiently cold, although the late summer atmospheric thermodynamics are much different than winter (i.e., warm air can "hold" much more water than cold air).Sadly, 7 people have lost their lives from flash floods and mudslides, but hundreds are still missing. An earlier figure of 1,250 missing has drastically decreased, but the number remains a mystery since many of the affected mountain communities are still nearly impossible to reach. Flash flood watches remain through evening for the Denver area and Foothill communities to the west, including Boulder, Golden, Ft. Collins area, Georgetown, etc., but the situation should be improving gradually as the moisture, instability has drifted south into New Mexico – where flood watches cover much of the state. The 850 mb map below from yesterday afternoon shows the main ingredients for this historic event. (Not shown see link below.) The dark green isolines (contours of temperature or pressure etc.) in this map shows the copious amounts of moisture across the region, much of which stems from the eastern tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean where tropical cyclones have been commonplace, hence enhancing the well-known "Pineapple Express" into the Southwest U.S. Also shown in the image below are the easterly low-level winds causing orographic lift of this moist air, and along with relatively cold air at upper-levels a very unstable situation develops with widespread, slow-moving heavy rain producing storms trapped against the mountains. The W-E oriented red line shows an outflow boundary from the previous storm activity further north in Colorado which enhanced the storm development even well east of the mountains over the adjacent plains, and thankfully for CO (but not for NM) has sagged south into the TX Panhandle west into east-central NM. This is the reason for the flash flood watches covering NM but slowly being lifted in even the hardest hit areas in Colorado. The good news is that there are zero flood warnings in either CO or NM at this time, with the only warning currently in effect in southern Utah for a single county.Yesterday at this time (around the time of the figure above), flash flood warnings were all over the place in central, northern, and eastern NM, but the pattern is slowly evolving away from the record-breaking system it once was. MAJOR flooding also in Central Mexico from dual tropical cyclones – Manuel and Ingrid. The eastern Rocky Mountain states of CO and WY aren't the only areas seeing record-breaking rains, as dual tropical cyclones have hammered much of central Mexico from Acapulco to Tampico, the latter city sustaining the land fall of category 1 hurricane Ingrid early this morning. Local meteorologists are predicting over 45 INCHES of total rain from the collision of moisture from earlier Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific and Ingrid from the east, and I'd say that is an underestimation. Already over 30 people have lost their lives from the flash floods and mudslides in central Mexico, and the worst is yet to come as the even more substantial moisture of formerly hurricane Ingrid slams into the mountains. This is the first of consistent severe weather bulletins and tropical updates we'll be sending via email to you, our loyal TVN members every week or so if there is relevant interesting or extreme weather happening somewhere in the world… along with our latest news on Tornado Chasers (You can preorder the upcoming 2013 season the perfect gift for any weather enthusiasts you know – here..http://tvnweather.com/preorder), the Dominators, and storm chasing plans.

    http://us5.campaign-archive1.com/?u=740ed25a8fa3220c8e4997e54&id=18eb0b198c&e=79a914210fhttp://tvnweather.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=740ed25a8fa3220c8e4997e54&id=c32cdf3fea&e=79a914210fI believe he meant upcoming 2014 season?Sorry about the lack of graphics I just can't seem to get my head around them for some reason. The pre-ored business is for the 2013 season. (I know nothin', I theen.)Originally posted by Reed Trimmer:

    In 2013 TVN captured some of the most amazing footage ever of large, violent tornadoes, with multiple intercepts and we are grateful that you allowed us to continue for another season. We can't thank you enough for your support. For those of you who missed out on the Kickstarter season pass you can now pre-order the 2013 season pass directly from our website. The first episode will premiere on September 30th, 2013 with new episodes each week. By pre-ordering the season pass you will get access to the entire season (at least 12 episodes) and a notification each time a new episode is ready to watch.

    What a name. His parents must have a gardening business. He can thank me all he likes it's only a quote. I wish him well but I am happy enough watching the charts from here; ta very much.

  7. I had sleepless nights since the eruption. I am pretty sure the cramp I suffer is something that relatesd to volcanic activity, high VEI stuff I think. It is so irregular and severe when it occurs. I have been so sleepy and dull it is unbelievable. Here is something else that I think relates to volcanic activity:Originally posted by earthObservatory:

    We live on a dynamic, restless planet. On any given day, there is usually a cyclone, tropical depression, or extra-tropical storm brewing. For a brief moment the skies over all of the oceans were relatively calm in this composite of fourteen polar satellite passes stitched together from September 8, 2013.There were no hurricanes, cyclones, or tropical storms in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Ocean basins —a relatively rare occurrence at the height of the hurricane/cyclone season in the northern hemisphere.In the eastern Pacific, remnants of tropical storm Lorena were breaking up near the Baja Peninsula. In the eastern Atlantic, the pieces of tropical depression #9 were starting to gather near the islands of Cape Verde; by the next day, tropical storm Humberto would form.In its May and August 2013 outlooks, the National Hurricane Center forecasted a 70 percent chance of a “more active than normal” season, with 13 to 20 named storms and 7 to 11 hurricanes. A “normal” season typically produces 12 named storms, including 6 hurricanes. Through the second week of September (the midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season), there have been nine named storms—keeping pace with predictions—but just one that reached hurricane strength.The one hurricane, Humberto, was observed on September 11, 2013, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite (image below). Humberto became a hurricane around 5 a.m. on September 11, just hours short of becoming the latest date for the first hurricane in a season. By September 13, Humberto had weakened to a tropical storm. Forecasts were calling for the northwest-moving storm to reach hurricane status again by September 19, when it will be in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and well away from land.The slow start does not necessarily mean the hurricane season will be mild. “What happens in the early part of the season is generally not a good predictor of the second half of the season, which is when the majority of hurricanes and major hurricanes form,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “NOAA’s outlooks are for the season as a whole, and not for any particular month during the season.”Hurricanes could be late and active. Remember hurricane Sandy in late October last year.”

    I think a problem with statistics is that they never relate to volcanic activity. The 8th (when the above image was taken) was when that small storm signalling a volcanic eruption was spawned out of that huge blocking Low under Australia.Meanwhile some other scientists have been coming up with clever ideas…

  8. Originally posted by Science Daily:

    Human activity has very different effects on the temperature of the upper and lower atmosphere, and a very different fingerprint from purely natural influences," said Benjamin Santer, the lead researcher in the paper appearing in the Sept.16 online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere."Observational satellite data and the computer model-predicted response to human influence have a common latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change. The key features of this pattern are global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling over the 34-year satellite temperature record. (The troposphere is the lowest portion of Earth's atmosphere. The stratosphere lies above the troposphere.)"Current climate models are highly unlikely to produce this distinctive signal pattern by internal variability alone, or in response to naturally forced changes in solar output and volcanic aerosol loadings," Santer said.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130917132326.htmJust exactly how they compared volcanic activity to the forced warming remains to be seen. I don't have access to the paper and probably wouldn't understand it anyway.edit:I tell a lie. The PDF is available online as a PDF here:http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/09/10/1305332110.full.pdf+html Whilst human activity has made a contributed change to the planet it is remarkably small compared to the erratic volcanic activity we have.Every 3 to 5 years, sporadic eruptions increase the layering of the air in ways we don't yet understand. And it is only relatively recently that human activity (mainly in the form of deforestation) has begun removing trees from the previously inaccessible mountain peaks.

  9. Along with terrible traffic accidents coincidental with large earthquakes which now appear to involve volcanic eruptions, there seems to be an increase in murder rampages. A nutcase in Vienna has shot 4 men dead and another in the USA shot 12 dead at the naval base in Washington DC.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24124193http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/17/remembering-the-victims-of-the-washington-navy-yard/?_r=0I haven't checked if these two occurrences are a one off match with volcanic eruptions but it wouldn't surprise me that certain people have a brain function pattern that is interfered with in such spells.

  10. More volcanic activity shown here:High pressure is blocking the Drake Passage (20 to 40 degrees W.) An huge low pressure complex extending to the South Pole starting at 140 E and at the time shown, reaching to 60 West contains an High (not a very high High at 983 millibars) and has elongated out to 30 South at 170 West.Pointing like that along with the complexity of the system, indicates anticyclonic weather in the North Atlantic. There is no shortage of that but it hasn't over-ridden the wet weather coincident with all those tropical storms.Yet.

  11. I think that the spell is broken for now. Obviously the series nestles in a lunation similar in nature to those of earthquake series.My symptoms of unease were:1. Coldness.The temperatures dropped in Britain and the weather was wet and miserable but not drastically different in any way from what we are used to. Temperatures dropped about 2 or 3 degrees overall. But I was completely frozen. Like my old age had caught up with me.In hjindsight, I have always suffered like this but without knowing the exact cause.At one time I tried to equate the feeling with Tornadoes and earthquakes. I wasn't THAT FAR off the marque was I?2. Leg cramps.I feel like I have just run 5 miles (OK I was never very fit, call it 10 miles, or a marathon, whatever you think.) It is awkward just coming down the stairs. 3. SleepyAll I wanted to do over the last few days was sleep.And eat.4. Insatiable appetite.I think I am just greedy. But I did have a lot of cravings.5. I have an herpes outbreak on my lip and I think I just managed to stave off an outbreak of athlete's foot.Being a thaumaturge isn't romantic. If you have spent the last 2 or 3 decades killing orcs, capturing castles and mating with beautiful maidens instead of studying astronomy and meteorology, you probably wasted the dawn of the computer age enjoying yourself like a fool.Well I can't do anything about that. But if it's any comfort you can cure your athlete's foot. Just knock off the proteins, you can eat as much Pot Noodle as you like. Eat fresh fruit with it.Ate vwala.

  12. Three lows in a row.There is nothing dramatic on the following day but they do come back after that. So it's anyone's guess what happens here. (Three Lows in a row means an high magnitude quake very high if no tropical storms are apparent. However one of the four extant at the time of writing is about to become a Cat 5.)http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.htmlI wonder if all large magnitude volcanic eruptions occur with the presence of tropical storms. You'd think I would remember wouldn't you.Ias urn ijit. The problem is that we had a series of mag 6+ quakes last time. Nothing much over 5 at the moment (a 5.5 and a 5.4 on the 18th.) Something else to watch out for. The problem is that unless I see them with hindsight I won't learn to see them in foresight.

  13. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.phpLooking at the very limited times of volcanic eruptions I can remember and the dates for some of these tropical storms, I am guessing that superstorms are directly powered by volcanic activity.So much for the question: Do volcanoes set up anticyclones?A cat 5 storm can only occur when an anticyclone occurs in the upper atmosphere near the cyclone invoked. So just look up the dates of Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes and typhoons.You'd think I would wouldn't you?No. I am not interested until next time. Let fools dig in the archive and do all my research. I'd rather wait for the next one. (Monday, I think.)

  14. Originally posted by Usenet post:

    On Thursday, 19 September 2013 14:08:15 UTC+1, exmetman wrote:I thought I would just add another chart to the one I created yesterday. This time I investigated the frequencies of anticyclones, for marked anticyclonic spells during Autumn, correlating them and the many phrases we have to describe them.Indian Summer between late September and mid-NovemberSaint Martin’s Summer on November 11)Saint Luke’s Summer (18 October)Old Wives’ Summer (German in origin and associated with the appearance of Baldachin spiders silken thread) used in the Netherlands, Hungary, Austria, Finland as well as Germany.

    The appearance of spiders has to do with Tropical Storms. I think that that means they relate to volcanic activity then. It would certainly explain what signals they receive. And thus give us a sound frequency to research into.

    Method:From 50,000 days of Lamb weather types I added up the occurrence of anticyclonic and cyclonic days through the year. I scored one for a pure type – either anticyclonic (A) or cyclonic (C) – and 0.5 for the hybrid types such as ANE through to AN, and CNE through to CN. I then calculated the percentage frequency by dividing by the number of years in the series not forgetting leap years and the 29th of February.Results:(Charts on my blog at https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2013/09/19/anticyclonic-weather-types-and-indian-summers/)As you can see from the charts September is probably one of the most anticyclonic months of the year apart from mid-June. The mid-June peak of 43% on the 14th took me by surprise, I always took the first two weeks of June as holiday when at work now I realise I should have made that the second and third weeks! Let me know if you don’t find the same if you parse the data. Getting back to the chart, after the peak of around 33% at the time of the Autumn equinox, the frequency declines to around 25% by the end of September, before rising slightly in the 2nd week of October to around 28% ( a little too early for a St Luke’s Summer). After this It then declines to around 20% by the end of October, with an associated marked rise in Cyclonic frequency to around the same figure. Finally, in the 3rd week of November there is a final pronounced peak of around 28% (St Martins Summer?).I realise that these phrases are not directly connecting a date with an increased frequency of anticyclonic weather, a so-called ‘singularity’, but obviously down through the centuries people have noticed a spell of weather occurring in Autumn, and labelled it with the nearest Saint’s feast day and it stuck. Nowadays it seems that the more popular term ‘Indian Summer’ has subsumed the older phrases and they have now fallen out of use.

    I think it was more a general term until the Catholics and Protestants wanted to digitalise everything. I imagine a more holistic approach would be better for an harvest rather than hard and fast rules demanded by bean counters these days.

    Interestingly, I notice that the latest NWP models are suggesting some form of anticyclonic spell in the next 10 days or so over the UK and western Europe, which I’m sure will keep phrases like ‘Indian Summer’ from falling into disuse.

    Following a volcanic eruption we get a hefty anticyclone and this thus slips away to the north on its beam ends.The problem is that by the time our part of the North Atlantic gets high, the crust has all been eaten. We usually consider the high comes from Bermuda and the Azores. (It is why they are there in the first place, that is the point to it all.) If you look at the start date for the latest Cat 5 Hurricane you will find it is only a matter of some 15 or 20 degrees from that relatively massive eruption.Furthermore it is to windward, obviously. (I mean the storm is downwind.)Add the effect of upper atmospheric heating and you have all you need to get the gist of what must be happening to cause the permanent subtropical anticyclones. Or at least what you need to add to the solar input and take them from the white noise of the Hadley-Ferrel background.Pushing the boat out (now that we are stripping the last old forests right to the tops of the mountains) if we regrow trees and shrubs on the peaks of the mountains, we will probably completely cure all the problems we are having with the weather.Failing that, then putting wind farms on all the peaks we can, will go a long way towards the same amelioration. (I can't imagine god being happy with that though.)https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-GB#!topic/uk.sci.weather/rgCYkS92xHcIt will be interesting to go through his charts, if the graph can be used, to compare other geo-phenomena (including one day perhaps, the lunar phases.)

  15. http://my.opera.com/Are-You-a-Lunarist-like-Myself/blog/show.dml/98469052?cid=112161112#comment112161112 MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Usagi, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on September 19, 2013. At the time, Usagi was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.Now we need the approximate date and hour for the eruption most likely involved. We can't insist it is actually that one though.Originally posted by Unisys Hurricane Data: Date: 16-19 SEP 2013 Super Typhoon-5 USAGI LAT LON TIME WIND Pressure STATe 17.60 132.10 09/16/18Z 25 – TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17.50 131.70 09/17/00Z 30 – TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17.60 131.10 09/17/20Z 35 – TROPICAL STORM 17.60 130.60 09/18/02Z 40 – TROPICAL STORM 17.60 130.00 09/18/08Z 50 – TROPICAL STORM 17.30 130.30 09/18/00Z 50 – TROPICAL STORM 17.30 130.00 09/18/06Z 55 – TROPICAL STORM 17.30 129.70 09/18/12Z 65 – TYPHOON-1 17.20 128.60 09/18/18Z 90 – TYPHOON-2 17.00 128.10 09/19/00Z 90 – TYPHOON-2 17.60 128.00 09/19/06Z 120 – TYPHOON-4 Forecasts: 18.20 127.30 09/19/12Z 140 – SUPER TYPHOON-5 19.30 125.70 09/20/00Z 145 – SUPER TYPHOON-5 20.30 123.80 09/20/12Z 135 – SUPER TYPHOON-4 21.20 121.80 09/21/00Z 120 – TYPHOON-4 21.80 119.60 09/21/12Z 110 – TYPHOON-3 22.40 115.10 09/22/12Z 90 – TYPHOON-2And it wasn't even a tropical depression when it started, remember:Originally posted by tdjmd1: Mount Sinabung, Sumatra, Indonesia 03.17°N. 98.39°E.So we have a discrepancy here of some 15 degree of Latitude and a little more -some 20-odd degrees of Longitude between Vent and storm centre but the storm cloud was coming from where?The sky?The sun?Magic mushrooms?The sun will roll around 15 degrees in an hour. And with the steam in free fall-up…. I don't have any idea what mechanisms might be involved.

  16. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.phpLooking at the very limited times of volcanic eruptions I can remember and the dates for some of these tropical storms, I am guessing that super-storms are directly powered by volcanic activity.So much for the question: Do volcanoes set up anticyclones?A cat 5 storm can only occur when an anticyclone occurs in the upper atmosphere near the cyclone invoked. So just look up the dates of Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes and typhoons.You'd think I would wouldn't you?No. I am not interested until next time. Let fools dig in the archive and do all my research. I'd rather wait for the next one. (Monday, I think.)

    I think I will have to write a book on that subject in explanation. I will attempt to put it online at very minimal cost. (If I didn't despise Amazon I would intimate on Kindle.)It will only be opinion but then, the earth's heat budget is "only opinion", as is plate tech theory, earthquake plumes and residual heat under the aesthenosphere.Also opinion is the solar heat source, Hetrzprung Russel diagrammes, weather models and that the planets have no viable effect on the way geo-phenomena work.OTOH of course it is also just opinion that Newtonian Mechanics needs Einstein to make the pieces fit. My opinion is that the worlds' weathers will eventuate all the perceived problems with orbital periods of planets that don't have atmospheres, along with the other two or three similar solar system dynamics puzzles -whose situations escape me at the moment.What remains to be seen, next, is how much of the doldrums is due to the sunlight that hits the sea surface. All I have done is suggest the mechanism for the "above troposphere cyclone" (which are actually cyclonic judging by their direction of rotation.)

  17. Hear an odd one. This is from a usenet article though I haven't quoted it. You can find the link here:https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/uk.d-i-y/yYsPNW6uBJsIt's about game bird migration and I read it on the day I was thinking about low temperatures occurring in Britain just before a volcanic eruption. (It has got cold again today.)I was thinking that they must know when it is time to go, because of the sudden drop in temperature. It got warmer, temporarily, after the events of the 15th or 16th. I think it is going to blow again although the weather fronts on the North Atlantic chart are nothing like the same as last time.The alternative "tell" is that they can hear the volcano singing. Something of that sort of the other must be why spiders appear just before tropical storms. (I haven't seen them yet this time.)Spiders produce webs that are remarkably similar to radio telescopes. But that is after they build the webs. They don't do that until they receive the information. They do produce the first line of a web though. That is what they are doing when you first notice them, if you are observant and haven't loaded your home with poisons.They build in corners, or in places with some sort of an echo chamber effect.Why do they do it. Following the eruption, a massive amount of steam is released, there is no knowing how much. Also there are measurable amounts of other fall-out called ash and aerosols. That can be estimated using satellite technology.Perhaps it may one day be possible to gauge the amount of steam released by accurate estimates of fall-out. Regardless of that; it might be true that following this eruption type, massive tropical storms occur. Perhaps it also indicates when the tropical storms are capable of coming to Britain and other parts of the northern hemisphere in time for migration.Maybe it is this understanding of the term "Equinoctial Gales" that the ancient philosophers had in mind for it. Of course we still have to work out what connection there is between volcanoes and tropical storms. Well, lots of things to chew over.

  18. Pacific:Name Season Max. 1 min. wind in knots km/h mph1950sPatsy 1959 150 280 175"Mexico" 1959 140 260 1601970sAva 1973 140 260 1601990sEmilia 1994 140 260 160Gilma 1994 140 260 160John 1994 150 280 175Guillermo 1997 140 260 160Linda 1997 160 295 1852000sElida 2002 140 260 160Hernan 2002 140 260 160Kenna 2002 145 270 165Ioke 2006 140 260 160Rick 2009 155 285 1802010sCelia 2010 140 260 160http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Pacific_hurricanes

  19. Lists of storms:Atlantic Stormsname Season Dates as a Cat 5 Time as a Cat 5 Peak one-minute winds Pressure"Cuba" 1924 October 19 12 hours 165 mph (270 km/h) 910 hPa (26.87 inHg)San Felipe II-"Okeechobee" 1928 September 13–14 12 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg)"Bahamas" 1932 September 5–6 24 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 921 hPa (27.20 inHg)"Cuba" 1932 November 5–8 78 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg)"Cuba–Brownsville" 1933 August 30 12 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg)"Tampico" 1933 September 21 12 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg)"Labor Day" 1935 September 3 18 hours 185 mph (295 km/h) 892 hPa (26.34 inHg)"New England" 1938 September 19–20 18 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 940 hPa (27.76 inHg)"Fort Lauderdale" 1947 September 16–17 30 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 938 hPa (27.70 inHg)Dog 1950 September 5–7 60 hours 185 mph (295 km/h) 948 hPa (27.99 inHg)Easy 1951 September 7–8 18 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 957 hPa (28.26 inHg)Janet 1955 September 27–28 18 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 914 hPa (27.0 inHg)Cleo 1958 August 16 6 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 948 hPa (27.99 inHg)Donna 1960 September 4 12 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg)Ethel 1960 September 15 6 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 972 hPa (28.70 inHg)Carla 1961 September 11 18 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 931 hPa (27.49 inHg)Hattie 1961 October 30–31 18 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 920 hPa (27.17 inHg)Beulah 1967 September 20 18 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 923 hPa (27.26 inHg)Camille 1969 August 17–18 18 hours 190 mph (305 km/h) 905 hPa (26.72 inHg)Edith 1971 September 9 6 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 943 hPa (27.85 inHg)Anita 1977 September 2 12 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 926 hPa (27.34 inHg)David 1979 August 30–31 42 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 924 hPa (27.29 inHg)Allen 1980 August 5–9† 72 hours 190 mph (305 km/h) 899 hPa (26.55 inHg)Gilbert 1988 September 13–14 24 hours 185 mph (295 km/h) 888 hPa (26.22 inHg)Hugo 1989 September 15 6 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 918 hPa (27.11 inHg)Andrew 1992 August 23–24† 16 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 922 hPa (27.23 inHg)Mitch 1998 October 26–28 42 hours 180 mph (285 km/h) 905 hPa (26.72 inHg)Isabel 2003 September 11–14† 42 hours 165 mph (270 km/h) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg)Ivan 2004 September 9–14† 60 hours 165 mph (270 km/h) 910 hPa (26.87 inHg)Emily 2005 July 16 6 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg)Katrina 2005 August 28–29 18 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 902 hPa (26.64 inHg)Rita 2005 September 21–22 24 hours 180 mph (285 km/h) 895 hPa (26.43 inHg)Wilma 2005 October 19 18 hours 185 mph (295 km/h) 882 hPa (26.05 inHg)Dean 2007 August 18–21† 24 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 905 hPa (26.72 inHg)Felix 2007 September 3–4† 24 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

  20. This isn't goping to be a cakewalk. Ol Doinyo Lengai, Tanzania, Africa July 19, 2007: Eruption Kilauea, Hawaii, US July 18-22, 2007: Eruptions Fuego, Guatemala July 17-21, 2007: Twenty one explosive plumes Sangay, Ecuador July 23-24, 2007: Plume Mt Cleveland, Aleutian Islands, Alaska July 20-23, 2007: plumes ST. HELENS Washington, USA July 18-24, 2007: growing lava dome & earthquakes UBINAS Perú July 22, 2007: Plume SOUFRIÈRE HILLS Montserrat, West Indies July 13-24, 2007: earthquakes KARYMSKY Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia July 13-20, 2007: Plumes & earthquakes, ongoing SHIVELUCH, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia July 13-20, 2007: Plumes & earthquakes, ongoing Kluichevshoi, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia July 13-20, 2007: Plumes & earthquakes Lascar, Chili July 18, 2007: Plume Gamkonora, Halmahera, Indonesia July 7-13, 2007: Eruption Klyuchevskaya, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia July 9, 2007: Plume; ongoing Klyuchevskaya, Russia July 1, 2007: Plume; ongoing Bagana, Bougainville Island, Papua New Guinea June 28, 2007: Plume Mount Nyiragongo June 19, 2007: Plume Manam, Papua New Guinea mid June 2007: Plume Mount Semeru, Java, Indonesia May 3, 2007: Plume Lopevi, Vanuatu, May 3, 2007: plume Shiveluch and Klyuchevskaya Volcanoes, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, April 26, 2007: both volcanoes erupted simultaneously; ongoing

  21. Ol Doinyo Lengai, Tanzania, Africa July 19, 2007: EruptionFelix 2007 September 3–4† 24 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg)Unisys will be the best site for storm data. Hurricane-5 DEAN 13-23 AUG 145 918 5 Tropical Storm ERIN 15-19 AUG 35 1003 – Hurricane-5 FELIX 31 AUG-05 SEP 145 929 5 Wikipedia is a mess.

  22. Meanwhile here on earth:Originally posted by From a Usenet post:

    me (Weatherlawyer) 10:17 (11 hours ago)On Friday, 20 September 2013 12:54:36 UTC+1, data…@yahoo.com wrote:>> Well, really! One would have expected one to satisfy oneself with the> veracity of your assertions about the functions and variables concerned.> Perhaps a short calendar of volcanoes vis a vis storm activity?>> And perhaps a casus belli concerning interactions and causes. For example:> Do the gases expelled seed weather activity?> Do storm pressures cause plate movement leading to gravity anomalies?> That sort of thing.First of all I have told you many times there is no such thing as plate tectonics. A fluid can not relapse from implied or applied tension can it?How can a semi-fluid matrix obey the silly theories they apply to it?I am going to look into the likelihood of matching such things as severe tropical storms with known large VEI events. It seems the most obvious route to take. I was perhaps waiting for a certain self indulgent curmudgeon and erstwhile poster on here to do the job for me.Obviously the idiot found a relationship already and has had the sense to back the * off. I have only looked at one situation so far: A multiplicity of tropical storms with, shortly after the event, a large SF in one of them.I can't indemnify myself against the fact that the large category "hurricane" may occur in the wrong ocean but in 2007 Felix among other storms arrived in the Atlantic shortly after the eruption of a volcano in western Central Africa.If the Cat 3, 4 or 5 occurs in the wrong ocean but in the right time frame, then it will be obvious, to some, that this is due to acoustics and wave applications not fully understood yet. If it/they arrive some relatively short distance away (something like 20 degrees down-wind) then it would appear that the events interact quite simply with a "knock on effect".> Do storm pressures cause plate movement leading to gravity anomalies?> That sort of thing.There is an article in the popular science press this week concerning some research initiated several decades ago in the deeps around Fiji. There is a comment on it on the part of my blog this thread holds a link to. is repeated on.There has just been discovered, a certain massive tidal wave phenomenon that is about to hold far reaching applications into oceanography and seismic theory. Which is about as much as I can say about that at the moment. As usual, the chances for anyone not intimately concerned with college research and the like, getting hold of (and even of understanding) the actual findings or the errors contained therein, are remote.HTH

    It's been an absolutely beautiful day here today -after I was freezing yesterday. I swear; I was wearing 2 shirts and three sweaters under a quilt boiler-suit and feeling quite ill. High cirrus disappearing into blue sky. That is going the wrong way compared to all the stuff preceding the eruption.IIRC there is an hiatus of several weeks between major eruptions when a particular mountain blows twice in a period. It may be 2 weeks that separates episodes. If so, then my idea that Monday is likely to be the next episode is woefully inaccurate.But I do believe there is something in the air for the end of the end of this week.Originally posted by I forgot to mention:

    me (Weatherlawyer) 20:09 (1 hour ago)I forgot to mention that there is a striking dissimilarity between the weather pattern on the Australian charts for "normal" (if there is such a thing) tropical storm situations and the extreme events that occur with large VEIs.Both have those long parallel isobars tending to follow the coast of Antarctica but with an high VEI event likely, there will be cols or even anticyclones trapped between the shore and the pressure contours involved in the signal. Obviously there will be less ability for the relevant pressure lines to follow the coast so intimately, being thrown off by said highs or cols.The idea that a col can separate 1016 mb "neutral" pressure area from what in no other part of the planet is the neutral pressure region's pressure in those waters (about 930 Mb?) may be of interest to the purely technically minded meteorologist.

  23. 2013/09/21 @ 01:39. 7.2 South 120.0 East. 6.1 M. FLORES SEAThis means something too. But what?***The incidence of all tropical storms that occur simultaneously -regardless of the categories any of them reach, has to be investigated just as carefully as those with large category numbers.Assume ALL tropical storms occur with volcanic activity. Forecasts for tropical storms are then forecasts for volcanic activity.So what tropical storms are due to Etna and Hawaiian volcanoes?Those two in particular have been in more or less constant eruption since the 1940's.The Canadian EFS shows no end of eruptive signalling, well into October, so even I don't know what is to occur or when I do know it is due to occur shortly.Try to stay safe.

  24. Some laws concerning the relationship between Volcanoes and Tropical Storms:1. The number of storms has something to do with eruptions.I have no idea how many relate to what mechanics in the volcano. I think when more than two are running at the same time it, will be evident that there is more than background activity going on.2. Attention might also be paid to those recently noticed phenomena when when a storm has a "dual" running right next to it.There will be an active day for Tropical Storms according to the Australian weather charts on Tuesday. Look at the isobars running from 160 E to the Greenwich meridian. If it wasn't for the presence of cyclones en-trained in them, I would not have equated the run with anything other than tropical storms.It starts just after midnight. Then is fully developed at +66 hours:> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View(T = 0 at 18:00, 21 September 2013.)3. Large category storms occur with large category volcanic explosivity (VEI).This is likely to lend itself to archaeology. Unfortunately, it is also likely to prove a better tool than most of the blunt instruments in the climatologists' tool shed too. But hell, the good lord makes the sun shine for fools as often as on the next men to them.4. The set up on the Australian charts is initially a very large blocking Low that fills the channel between Antarctica and any of it's satellite continents.A small leader cyclone will run off from that and when that smaller low dissipates the eruption will be signalled by the mountain itself.5. Elsewhere (and including the same charts mentioned here) there will be a tendency for cyclonic systems to reverse track and to split apart into their constituents.This cyclosis takes place in the exact place that cyclogenesis is normally expected. The Icelandic low for example will tend to fall apart in situ.6. There is a situation when the blocking Lows expand free of the continents. These show up on the entirely satellite driven charts as systems that can displace the anticyclones in the doldrums.As with the other type, they come apart into several centres. These will have room to rotate about each other.7. The normal flow of air at sea level in the southern hemisphere is from west to east as is the case in the northern hemisphere. The normal flow reverses before a volcano is due to erupt.8. The Canadian chart. The NA EFS will show a signal that usually indicates large magnitude earthquakes. Three cyclones in a line across North America. However this set-up continues unabated, for several days.This set up tends to bring disastrous flooding periods in Middle America, so it would be worth correlating them with volcanic activity.The forecast is a massively managed model so its effects are extremely difficult to formulate for. However the forecasts disappear late in the runs. That is, they are removed well before the last day for them. However they reappear again regularly initial all sign of potential is entirely finished.A signal for a large Magnitude earthquake will only appear once. Those for a volcano appear off and on for about a week. In fact they have reappeared on this chart:http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.htmlYou can retrieve them from a number of days ago if you wish. Change the type of charts shown as the default is precipitation. You want the Sea Level ones.9. In the North Atlantic charts, the flow of cyclones will tend to be much more directly north than the usual North-Westerly track.In the right season Tropical Storms will come to European waters. Those emanating from Africa may not even cross the Mid Atlantic Ridge. I wonder why.

  25. I very much doubt -because of prevailing weather conditions, that there is going to be an eruption tomorrow. I was led to that error by a chart I saw on the other Met Office North Atlantic charts page.It showed a remarkable set up that I thought held promise (that and the other charts are showing all the right signs -only… they are far too immature (so far) for the event to eventuate.)Ah well, don't let that put you off. I was years before I was able to get this far with earthquakes. This has only been since June and most of that was waiting for eruptions.

  26. Wow…Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Nothing to see here folks. Move along please.

    Maybe not.Traffic accidents, people doing nasty things to one another and bad weather seem to hit a flux in November. Unfortunately the servers on Unisys report all its hurricane date as being from 2011. I have to presume the actual web page data is accurate.These thing occurred in 2010:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2010They seem to recur in 2011 too. Should I thank Unisys for allowing me to see that?Idiots!!

  27. 2010 eruptions of Mount MerapiFrom Wikipedia1.2.1 Monday, 25 October1.2.2 Tuesday, 26 October1.2.3 Friday, 29 October1.2.4 Saturday, 30 October1.2.5 Monday, 1 November1.2.6 Tuesday, 2 November1.2.7 Wednesday, 3 November1.2.8 Thursday, 4 November1.2.9 Friday, 5 November1.2.10 Saturday, 6 November1.2.11 Sunday, 7 November1.2.12 Monday, 8 November1.2.13 Tuesday, 9 November1.2.14 Wednesday 10 November1.2.15 Thursday 11 November1.2.16 Wednesday 17 November1.2.17 Late November1.2.18 DecemberTropical Storms of 2010 From Unisys: North Atlantic 2 Hurricane-2 ALEX 25 JUN-02 JUL – Tropical Depression TWO 08-09 JUL – Tropical Storm BONNIE 22-24 JUL – Tropical Storm COLIN 02-08 AUG – Tropical Depression FIVE 10-11 AUG 4 Hurricane-4 DANIELLE 21-31 AUG 4 Hurricane-4 EARL 25 AUG-05 SEP – Tropical Storm FIONA 30 AUG-04 SEP – Tropical Storm GASTON 01-02 SEP – Tropical Storm HERMINE 06-09 SEP 4 Hurricane-4 IGOR 08-21 SEP 4 Hurricane-4 JULIA 12-20 SEP 3 Hurricane-3 KARL 14-18 SEP 1 Hurricane-1 LISA 21-26 SEP – Tropical Storm MATTHEW 23-26 SEP – Tropical Storm NICOLE 28-29 SEP 1 Hurricane-1 OTTO 06-10 OCT 2 Hurricane-2 PAULA 11-15 OCT – Tropical Storm RICHARD 21-26 OCT 1 Hurricane-1 SHARY 29-30 OCT 2 Hurricane-2 TOMAS 29 OCT-07 NOV Eastern Pacific – Tropical Storm AGATHA 29-30 MAY – Tropical Depression TWO_E 16-17 JUN – Tropical Storm BLAS 17-21 JUN 5 Hurricane-5 CELIA 19-29 JUN 3 Hurricane-3 DARBY 23-28 JUN – Tropical Depression SIX_E 14-16 JUL – Tropical Storm ESTELLE 06-10 AUG – Tropical Depression EIGHT_ 20-22 AUG 1 Hurricane-1 FRANK 21-28 AUG – Tropical Depression TEN_E 03-04 SEP – Tropical Depression ELEVEN 03-04 SEP – Tropical Storm GEORGETTE 21-23 SEP – Tropical Storm OMEKA 19-20 DEC Western Pacific – Tropical Depression ONE 18-19 JAN – Tropical Storm TWO 21-24 MAR – Tropical Storm OMAIS 21-26 MAR 1 Typhoon-1 CONSON 11-17 JUL 1 Typhoon-1 CHANTHU 18-22 JUL – Tropical Storm DIANMU 08-12 AUG – Tropical Storm MINDULLE 22-24 AUG – Tropical Storm LIONROCK 27 AUG-02 SEP 3 Typhoon-3 KOMPASU 30 AUG-02 SEP – Tropical Storm NAMTHEUN 30 AUG-01 SEP – Tropical Storm MALOU 02-07 SEP 1 Typhoon-1 MERANTI 08-10 SEP 3 Typhoon-3 FANAPI 14-20 SEP 2 Typhoon-2 MALAKAS 20-25 SEP – Tropical Depression FOURTE 05-06 OCT 5 Super Typhoon-5 MEGI 13-23 OCT – Tropical Depression 17W 21-23 OCT 4 Typhoon-4 CHABA 26-30 OCT – Tropical Depression EIGHTE 12-14 NOV – Tropical Depression NINETE 12-13 DEC South Pacific – Tropical Storm OLGA 23-30 JAN – Tropical Storm NISHA 27-30 JAN 4 Cyclone-4 OLI 01-06 FEB 2 Cyclone-2 PAT 07-11 FEB 3 Cyclone-3 RENE 11-16 FEB – Tropical Storm SEVENTEEN 21-22 FEB – Tropical Storm SARAH 27-27 FEB 4 Cyclone-4 TOMAS 11-17 MAR 5 Cyclone-5 ULUI 11-20 MAR – Tropical Storm PAUL 27-30 MAR – Tropical Storm TASHA 24-25 DEC Southern Indian 4 Cyclone-4 EDZANI 06-14 JAN – Tropical Storm MAGDA 20-22 JAN – Tropical Storm ELEVEN 27-30 JAN – Tropical Storm FAMI 02-02 FEB 4 Cyclone-4 GELANE 16-21 FEB – Tropical Storm HUBERT 10-10 MAR 1 Cyclone-1 IMANI 22-26 MAR – Tropical Storm ROBYN 02-06 APR – Tropical Storm SEAN 22-25 APR – Tropical Storm ONE 26-28 OCT – Tropical Storm ANGGREK 30 OCT-04 NOV 1 Cyclone-1 ABELE 29 NOV-03 DEC Northern Indian 1 Cyclone-1 LAILA 17-21 MAY – Tropical Storm BANDU 19-22 MAY 4 Cyclone-4 PHET 31 MAY-06 JUN 4 Cyclone-4 GIRI 21-22 OCT 1 Cyclone-1 JAL 04-07 NOV Nothing to see here folks. Move along please.

  28. Volcanic activity is associated with multiple tropical storms.But after the storm?When we get a Blocking High in the Atlantic Approaches we tend to get increased earthquake activity in Japan. Super-quakes are not associated with tropical storms. As far as I know they never occur together.But mega-quakes in the far east ARE associated with Blocked Highs in the North Atlantic. There are still plenty of Blocked Low situations in the BoM chart, on the Pacific hemisphere chart supplied by the JTWC, there is a line of threats "three Lows in a row".It is difficult to imaging that god wasn't intending us to have a planet wide early warning system in time for all this. There is no way on his earth such forecasts could be prepared in the time of FitzRoy or earlier. It even astonished me that Crick could gauge the time of the best weather for the D Day landings when you consider the Met Office was incapable of supplying decent weather forecasts to the armed services all through that world war, a lifetime later.Whatever the case, I rather think that volcanic activity diminishes with Blocking High situations. And that Japan ought to gear up for another bout of disasters.http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/news.htmlhttp://www.disaster-report.com/2013/10/mt-sakurajima-in-japan-erupts-with-3-km.html"Mount Sakurajima in Kagoshima Prefecture on Kyushu island of Japan erupted on Monday, sending a plume of ash and smoke to a height of 3 km.According to the Kagoshima Local Meteorological Observatory, the recent volcanic activity of Mount Sakurajima has been continuing since the night of October 3.Ash fall has been widely confirmed in Kagoshima City. No injuries have been reported.This is the 702nd explosive eruption observed at the Mt. Sakurajima volcano this year."With the super-quake that destroyed Fukushima we were treated to a long series of Blocked Highs going back the previous year into it's October -IIRC. The series of quakes started in the Volcano Islands (how apposite) and Bonin Islands some 9 to 12 degrees south of the major epicentre.So maybe we are in for more. Severe quakes are preceded by severe wintery weather such as was recently forecast for the west coast of North America. For the super quake we in Britain had a record cold winter. Wherever the next one will be -if it is not to be a super-eruption… look out for spates of medium sized earthquakes occurring in the same region. four or five in a day of 4 to 5.5 M.Things to do:Scan this site for blocking Highs and check what large VEI eruptions were taking place.

  29. From a post on Usenet:

    On Monday, 7 October 2013 00:49:14 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:> There is a blocking High in the North Atlantic forecast for the end of today's run. (Time plus 84 from the midnight chart for Sunday 6 October 2013.)> > > > These phenomena are associated with volcanic activity. They ALWAYS occur after a cyclone splits up the way they have been splitting up lately. Ordinarily, Lows go from Newfoundland to Norway or if Britain is to be soaked they go through our Midlands via Ireland.> > > > But when they go up into the Arctic instead (as they have been this summer (incidentally the ice is building up nicely for the time of year (for the first time in a long while))) they tend to do so to the accompaniment of volcanic activity. And the cyclones break into several smaller cyclones before hitting land.> > > > Ordinarily, cyclones tend to break apart as they go ashore.> > When they go into the Arctic they tend to split three ways, or more and go to the river mouths of Arctic, The Ob and The Mackenzie and the great bays where the last sordid powers played out world war three.> > > > And after the split, comes a Blocking High.It's been overcast and cool here in Britain. Nothing likew the glorous weather we can have in an October anticyclone.> But I don't know if it signals MORE volcanicity or less, the end of the present spell of it. I know there is another break-away low in the Southern Hemisphere. It tends to disappear on the Australian charts. They are another anomaly; cyclones just fading away.

    My reply to myself from today 10 October 2013:

    There is an hell of a lot of volcanic weather going the rounds:Thursday, October 10, 2013Cyclone Phailin heads towards Odisha and APCyclone Phailin which is moving in from the Bay of Bengal, is forecast to hit between Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Paradip in Odisha state on the evening of October 12, disaster management and weather officials said today. Heavy rains, gale force winds and storm surges are also forecast in West Bengal, and the Andaman and Nicobar…Wednesday, October 9, 2013Eurasia's highest volcano Klyuchevskoi spews ash up to 3.7 milesEurasia's highest volcano, Klyuchevskoi, spewed ash up to 3.7 miles on Thursday morning, local emergencies department said. According to the emergency department, the cloud of ash poses no danger to residential areas. However it may pose threat to aircraft.Algerian flash floods kill 7Flash floods in Algeria have claimed lives of at least seven people, emergency services said. Two rivers burst their banks in Djelfa and flooded the nearby areas. Dozens of families are taking shelter in local schools, The Daily Star reported. Algeria flood 2001 had claimed lives of more than 800 people. http://www.disaster-report.com/So the waiting is over. Only we haven't really had the High. I wouldn't even say it is a blocking High. What is going to continue is the volcanic stuff as signalled by Thundery weather here in Britain and plenty of Triple Lows on the NA EFS. Couple that with the 3 (?) Lows in a row on the TSR and JTWC graphics.(Yes I do know that as they are tropical they can't help but be in a row, the thing is that their are so many of them.)According to the Australian charts Sunday will have the largest earthquake magnitude and series. Although Phailin looks pretty impressive, Wednesdays BoM gives that day as the most dangerous day for storms (and hence, of course, volcanoes.)Wait… no…. That's right Phailin's failing after Saturday; so it either re-surges or there is a worse "thing" coming

    ]

  30. Originally posted by Wikipedia:

    Several types of eruption named after famous volcanoes where that type of behavior has been observed {are species of} three different metatypes:Magmatic eruptions; the decompression of gas within magma propels it forward. Phreatomagmatic eruptions are driven by the compression of gas within magma, the direct opposite of the process powering magmatic activity. {?}Phreatic eruption, driven by the superheated steam via contact with magma; these eruptive types often exhibit no magmatic release, instead causing the granulation of existing rock.{There} are several sub-types.Hawaiian and submarine, then Strombolian, followed by Vulcanian and Surtseyan.Stronger eruptive types are:PeleanPlinian andUltra Plinian.Subglacial and phreatic eruptions are defined by their eruptive mechanism, and vary in strength.Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), a magnitude scale ranging from 0 to 8 that often correlates to eruptive types.

    I don't believe vulcanologists know what they are talking about.Do I?Well you are reading everything I have found in a very few months and have never seen written down anywhere or described by another at any time. Of course I am limited in knowing what research other have done. I have looked and the above is all I have found. Written many times in many ways but that is about all there is.Here is the rest of it; all I can relate to you that is of any use:

    The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)Used by the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program operates in a similar way to the Richter scale; each value represents a tenfold increasing in magnitude (logarithmic).{Most} eruptions are between 0 and 2. [But] eruptions may be indexed by volume of fluid per outlet of the mouth of volcano. {I am not looking at those.}Volcanic eruptions by VEI index[7]VEI Plume height Eruptive volume * Eruption type Frequency ** Example0 <100 m (330 ft) 1,000 m3 (35,300 cu ft) Hawaiian Continuous Kilauea1 100–1,000 m (300–3,300 ft) 10,000 m3 (353,000 cu ft) Hawaiian/Strombolian Months Stromboli2 1–5 km (1–3 mi) 1,000,000 m3 (35,300,000 cu ft) † Strombolian/Vulcanian Months Galeras (1992)3 3–15 km (2–9 mi) 10,000,000 m3 (353,000,000 cu ft) Vulcanian Yearly Nevado del Ruiz (1985)4 10–25 km (6–16 mi) 100,000,000 m3 (0.024 cu mi) Vulcanian/Peléan Few years Eyjafjallajökull (2010)5 >25 km (16 mi) 1 km3 (0.24 cu mi) Plinian 5–10 years Mount St. Helens (1980)6 >25 km (16 mi) 10 km3 (2 cu mi) Plinian/Ultra Plinian 1,000 years Krakatoa (1883)7 >25 km (16 mi) 100 km3 (20 cu mi) Ultra Plinian 10,000 years Tambora (1815)8 >25 km (16 mi) 1,000 km3 (200 cu mi) Ultra Plinian 100,000 years Lake Toba (74 ka)* This is the minimum eruptive volume necessary for the eruption to be considered within the category.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Types_of_volcanic_eruptions#Volcano_explosivity_index%5B/quote%5DI will try and find information about tropical storms for these two dates:Mount Pinatubo's Plinian / Ultra-Plinian eruption on June 15, 1991 (which may be possible) andMt St Helen's a VEI 5 on 18 May, 1980 (that won't be.)Comprehensive satellite data wasn't gathered for all oceans until 2000. In the North Atlantic it began in 1995. (West Pacific 1996 and East Pacific 1997.)It's a good job VEI 2s and 3s will do.

  31. On Thursday, 10 October 2013 19:35:22 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:> > According to the Australian charts Sunday will have the largest earthquake magnitude and series. Although Phailin looks pretty impressive, Wednesdays BoM gives that day as the most dangerous day for storms (and hence, of course, volcanoes.)A trick to forecasting volcanic activity of any real significance is that cyclones will tend to track contrary to their normal direction. This is especially true when two significantly deep lows share the billing for a complex system.Such an anomaly occurs on the 15th October 2013 when a deep Low (947 mb) harbours in the bay called The Ross Ice Shelf (180 to 140 W.) and is joined with a later arrival of similar size and depth (180 to 160 W.) with some 10 degrees of separation. The cyclone "on the shelf", as it were, moves back to the east some 10 degrees (not as far as it sounds, though) by Thursday.It will be interesting to see the North Atlantic chart do the same but with super cyclones rocketing off the charts all over the place it is hard to imagine how.One thing is for sure: The blocking high that develops afterwards won't be messing about! I wish I had given this little lot its own thread.This was an unstable thundery spell misty cold and overcast (ideal conditions for forecasting eruptions.) These are the times for the lunar phases:5th October at 00:35. Just ended~ish; with a bang. The following 3 phases are anticyclonic au naturelle:11th October at 23:0218th October at 23:3826th October at 23:41The one on the 11th is an especially strong one with the following two hanging onto the status quo, quite readily. Whatever they do they will do in duplicate I believe. But not necessarily in the same order.Hang onto your hats boys, it's going to be fun (for some of us. Others will be getting killed but who was ever going to listen to me?The pity is that so few of the victims will be experts in the field. A good day to stay home no doubt.

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