Volcanoes

Predicting volcanoes is the key to it all.

I can remember writing to the Japanese Embassy or somewhere in the early ‘90’s about the possibility of an earthquake there. It’s hard to believe anyone can be so naive. It’s a miserable confession to have to make.

And when I read, a short while later, that they were/had an earthquake drill, events didn’t do much to help me wise-up. …

The whole community of geology is as one that there is no way to predict earthquakes. Japan has spent millions on research into the possibilities of predicting them or the other side of it, attempts at earthquake mitigation. China, with no money in the days when they had a research office for earthquakes, had more success but of course they had no problem looking at the wisdom of the ancients.

China has money these days, so I imagine their efforts have become mainstream. Besides they don’t like talking about earthquakes, not even the success their citizens have had in the past. (People would start asking why medium sized quakes in China are so terribly disastrous.)

Over the last few years, I have been pointing out the varieties of ways that earthquakes can be predicted -without ever having been able to forecast where and very seldom, when. None the less, I have proven to my own satisfaction that earthquakes CAN be forecast. (I have even produced a method of forecasting when either a series of quakes, or a very large earthquake, would be unlikely -or that the likelihood of a predicted earthquake would be over.)

Not long ago (in early June 2013) I realised how it was possible to predict volcanic eruptions.
Proving it is not that difficult: I just have to make predictions.
It’s not a method that is likely to appeal to science but who gives a stuff about them?
What has science ever managed with all the money and all time in the world?

Contemporary science, geology and seismology, has literally had a lifetime to get on board the boat. Some of their demands for predicting earthquakes are fairly reasonable; one ancient boner is that the prediction has to hit a target far in smaller than its equivalent meteorological window. Geologists (self proclaimed losers) are confident that nobody can make a prediction of exactly when an earthquake will occur along with a prediction to within a few miles of where it will occur and within a very close tolerance, how large such a quake would be.

Some idiots, in a desire to purify their claims, will even bend their silly rules to make sure that not even a reasonable window can be hit by rearranging the magnitude goal posts. (That latter claim being made by a Californian ear-tone sensitive.)

I was talking to someone online on the 12th of July 2013. She drew my attention to the number of earthquakes in the range of 6 to 7 M that day and the news of volcanic activity. I wasn’t moved at all that there had been so many, it isn’t a rare occurrence and it shouldn’t be debilitating -not to a civilised country.
And the volcanic stuff was just “ongoing”.

I was feeling mellow and disinterested.
Lately, I have lost all sense of urgency in almost everything that I have been interested in, even earthquakes. This malaise has been going on for a couple of weeks now and to be honest is a fairly laid back feeling that is quite pleasant. I can see how early colonists in the USA found the locals “trying” when they appeared so lackadaisical. But why would they hurry to work at something when they had already accomplished as much as they needed?
Those self same self-righteous foreigners would castigate them for indolence, then, in the same speech, tell of their amity, peace and social equity -socialism.

In other words the white invaders wanted the original Americans (or whatever would be the true name(s) for the continents we Europeans call the Americas) to be up and out, hunting to extinction all that they could in order to supply the wants of a few rich people in a country the natives had never heard of and couldn’t care less about, while the locals were happy enough with what they had and saw no need to upset the balance of nature to buy bigger weapons to go hunting with.

It’s a bit like a crystal meths Tweaker telling a man who had just smoke some marijuana to shake himself.
I don’t smoke pot and I can see that there might be a case for taking uppers to get a “rush” but what one would want to do that for beats me. I’d much rather be “laid-back” in my “groove” enjoying “peace”, man. It literally does feel “cool”.

So a few hours ago I woke up and pondered a bit -as I am sometimes want to do before dropping back off to sleep. Tonight it was back on with the problems of geo-physics (something I have been neglecting recently.) Earlier I had been talking to a girl I know about the above and responded to her plaints with a link to one of the charts she had sent me (BoM’s sea level chart for the southern hemisphere given out to T+60 hours from the morning of 12th July 2013.)

In the cursory look I had taken at her insistence, I found the date for which the black mass at the confluence of the two continents Antarctica and South America disappears -or, at least, diminishes. It just occurred to me that such a series that ended with that chart tells us all just about when a volcanic sequence is likely to end.

So here then, is the key:

If the sequence ends with the dark mass along the Chile Palmer Land mountain ranges; it stand to reason that the precipitate forming along that line would be the signal we need to say that a lot of volcanic activity is on the way.
Am I right?]
Or am I right?

All I have to do now is compare the charts from when I first noticed the masses forming there (at the same time that we saw the increase in volcanic activity.) What I really need now is an amanunonsense to compile an animation of the first four charts from every day since June to the day the volcanic events ease.

Who do I know who is a little bit of a dope and I can palm this off to?